Government will release October-December GDP figures today, growth rate may remain up to 5.5 percent in third quarter

Pankaj Prasad
Gross Domestic product
Gross Domestic product

Economists say that the central bank has increased the repo rate by 2.50 per cent since May 2022 to control high inflation.

The country's economic growth may come down to 5.5 percent in the third quarter of the current financial year i.e. October-December due to weak demand amid an aggressive increase in the policy rate (repo rate) by the RBI. The government will release the GDP figures for the third quarter on Tuesday. The growth rate in the second quarter of 2022-23 was 6.3 percent.

To control, has increased the repo rate by 2.50 percent from May 2022 till now. This has increased the monthly installment (EMI) of the people and affected their spending capacity. Business activities have also slowed down. This has resulted in weakness on the demand and consumption front, the impact of which can be seen in the third quarter GDP figures. Barclays India Economist Rahul Bajoria said credit disbursements have slowed down due to higher interest rates amid global uncertainty. Despite some respite, inflation is still high. There is a possibility of its impact on the growth rate. Has increased by 50 percent. This has increased the monthly installment (EMI) of the people and affected their spending capacity. Business activities have also slowed down. This has resulted in weakness on the demand and consumption front, the impact of which can be seen in the third quarter GDP figures.

These factors will also affect the pace of economic growth

Sakshi Gupta, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank said,Manufacturing is expected to be affected by the slowdown in business activity amid fears of a recession.

The economy is also expected to get less support from the agriculture sector

The performance of 12 out of 14 high-frequency indicators of the services sector is likely to be weaker in Q3 of 2022-23 than in Q2.
Upasana Chachra, chief economist, Morgan Stanley India, said exports have declined in recent months. Consumer demand has also weakened. Due to this, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter may remain low.

Estimates of other agencies

agency growth rate
SBI 4.6 percent
RBI 4.4 percent
Barclays 5.0 percent
Yes Bank 5.5 percent
ICICI Securities 4.7 percent

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