No Clear Majority in Lok Sabha Elections, BJP Faces Setback

S Choudhury
No Clear Majority in Lok Sabha Elections BJP Faces Setback
No Clear Majority in Lok Sabha Elections BJP Faces Setback

Analysis of the Lok Sabha election results showing no clear majority and the impact on BJP and NDA.

It has become clear from the results and trends of the Lok Sabha elections that no party has got a clear majority in this election. BJP seems to be limited to around 241 seats. However, the NDA led by it has won or is leading in 292 seats. In the last 2019 and 2014 elections, BJP got majority on its own and Narendra Modi emerged as the leader of a strong government.

But, the results of this election have spoiled the entire calculation of BJP. Despite NDA getting majority, its constituent parties have a history of not being comfortable with the leadership of PM Modi. The first name in this is Bihar CM and JDU leader Nitish Kumar.

Nitish was furious over the photo with Modi

Nitish Kumar has been a part of NDA since the Vajpayee-Advani era, but he has never been comfortable with PM Modi. It was in 2009 when a photo of Nitish Kumar raising his hand with the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi on the stage in Jalandhar, Punjab appeared in the media and Nitish Kumar became furious over this small thing. At that time there was a severe flood in Koshi river in Bihar and the Gujarat government had sent money to the Chief Minister's Relief Fund for rescue and relief work in that flood. Nitish was so angry at the publication of his photo with Modi that he returned the money.

was 2013 when the BJP announced that Narendra Modi would be the head of the election campaign. Nitish Kumar broke away from the NDA. He resigned from the post of Chief Minister and made Jitan Ram Manjhi the CM. He fought the 2014 Lok Sabha elections separately from the BJP. In this election, the JDU was reduced to two seats. Then he ran the government for a few days with the external support of RJD and in 2015 he fought the Bihar Assembly elections together with RJD and won a landslide victory. But then his relations with RJD also did not remain good and in 2017, he accepted Narendra Modi as the leader out of compulsion and joined the NDA. However, since then Nitish has been in and out of the NDA many times.

This is Nitish's time!

This election result is the first time in the last decade that Nitish is in a position to bargain within the NDA, especially with the NDA led by Narendra Modi. Although he has only 12 seats, these 12 seats are important in getting the NDA a majority.

However, it cannot be said that Nitish Kumar's JDU is in a position to oppose Narendra Modi today. Even under the leadership of Narendra Modi, BJP is still ahead in 241 seats. It needs only 31 seats to reach the magic figure of 272. BJP has definitely weakened morally, because it had set a target of 370 for itself. But, it has got about 130 seats less than that. In comparison, JDU does not have such strength that it can question Modi's leadership.

Will Nitish do any big deal?

It can certainly be said that this time CM Nitish's party will be in a position to bargain more for a ministry in the Modi cabinet. On the other hand, Nitish Kumar, who has taken over as the Chief Minister despite having fewer MLAs in Bihar, will also be able to prevent the state BJP leadership from dominating him. JDU did not join the Modi government despite being in the NDA due to not getting 'proper' representation in the 2019 elections.

Overall, it can be said that as of now, BJP is the biggest party with 241 seats and its leader is Narendra Modi. No other leader is seen either in BJP or NDA to compete with him in terms of popularity.

Those who think that BJP's 241 seats are less should know that in this country, late Narasimha Rao's government was formed in 1991 which was a minority government but lasted for five years. Narasimha Rao had a strategy behind it. He never had to face strong opposition from the opposition. Also, the Atal-Advani led BJP did not have a way to provide an alternative government. After Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, Congress had got 232 seats, while BJP had got 120 and Janata Dal had got 59 seats. Despite this, Narasimha Rao's government lasted for full five years.