The National Statistics Office (NSO) has presented the first advance estimate of the country's GDP in the current financial year 2020-21. It says that at the current price, the size of our economy can be reduced from Rs 203.40 lakh crore last year to Rs 194.82 lakh crore this time, while the budget estimate of GDP was Rs 224.89 lakh crore. That is, 8.58 lakh crore rupees from last year and 30.07 lakh crores less than the budget estimate of this year! However, leave out the impact of inflation that our GDP is projected to fall by 7.73 percent.
The second advance estimate of the NSO will come on 26 February. Before that the general budget is to come on February 1, then the Finance Ministry will have to do all the calculations on the basis of the first advance estimate of the NSO. Therefore, we can say that even if Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has set a target of 12 percent real growth rate in the new financial year 2021-22, even then our GDP will increase by only 3.34 percent as compared to 2019-20. Really, the way Corona has eaten us for a whole year, it is not only economic but also a big political challenge. If the finance minister does not keep the focus of the budget on the farmers, then the farmers will miss resolving the current political challenge of dissatisfaction.
In fact, the issue is not just the minimum support price (MSP), but the entire policy of import-export and marketing of food grains that have been going on for decades. OECD study report of 37 countries of the world including India, US and China states that in 17 years from 2000 to 2017, farmers of India have lost Rs 45.05 lakh crore due to government policies. The question arises that despite the rural and agricultural budget of millions of crores of rupees and fertilizer subsidy of thousands of crores of rupees every year, why has the farm become a bargain? Explain that the budget for agriculture and rural development was Rs 2.83 lakh crore in the current financial year 2020-21, while Rs 88,309 crore has been provided for fertilizer subsidy. A spurt of agricultural credit of Rs 15 lakh crore.
The second challenge is health. The corona epidemic has brought out this weakness of ours very strongly. The central government's expenditure on health in the country has been stagnant at 1.15 percent of GDP for many years. Including states' expenditure, India spends only 3.6 percent of GDP on public healthcare, while China spends 5 percent of GDP on these services, Brazil 9.2 percent, Japan 10.9 percent and Germany 11.2 percent of GDP, while the world. Has an average of 6.1 percent of GDP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had several years ago promised to increase the central government's expenditure on health to 2.5 percent of GDP.
This time the third and final expectation from the Finance Minister in the budget is that she will eliminate every obstacle in the path of entrepreneurship from the root. There is no doubt that the government has been running skill and entrepreneurship development programs for the last several years. But even today, the maze of doing business is very complicated. Manish Sabharwal, chairman of Timeleys Rives, a company that is doing business to provide employees to the industry, told in a webinar a few months ago that in the country, employers have to follow more than 1500 laws at this time, about 57,000 employees have to be completed. Out of which there are about 8000 such people who could be jailed for not fulfilling it. Above, more than 3100 filings have to be done every year, which is sometimes changed eight times a day.
Large companies can deal with this bureaucratic hodgepodge. But for medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs), it is stifling. It is true that India has jumped from 142nd position to 63rd position between 2014 and 2019 in the World Bank rankings related to ease of doing business. But the problem is that the rankings of the World Bank are extracted from the data of only four metros Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Bangalore, while our entrepreneurs are spread far beyond them to remote areas.