California could face one of the wettest winters since records exist if the evolution of the El Nino phenomenon is confirmed, according to projections from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), considered among the most reliable in the world.
Climatologist Daniel Swain, a researcher at the California Water Resources Institute, explained that the most recent models show a “genuinely extraordinary to extreme” scenario, with a probability of between 70% and 100% that winter precipitation will exceed the historical average.
Rainfall is forecast above average
According to Swain, there is also a 70% to 100% chance that the period between December and February will be among the 20% of the wettest winters on record in California.
“The data point to a genuinely extraordinary to extreme El Nino event,” said the specialist when sharing the forecast prepared by the ECMWF on their social networks.
The warning has generated concern, especially among communities in the south of the state, where in recent weeks there have been exceptionally high tides and strong waves that have already caused damage to some coastal areas.
Long Beach resident Robert Merrell expressed concern about the outlook. “I would be concerned, because if that is happening now, El Nino will obviously have an even greater climate effect,” he said.
Flood risk increases
According to the Associated Press, El Niño is a natural phenomenon caused by the temporary warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, capable of modifying climate patterns on a global scale.
For its part, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that this episode could be among the most intense since records began in 1950, favoring a warmer and much rainier winter in the southern United States.
If the projections hold, California could face months of intense rains, floods, landslides and greater damage to communities near the coast, which is why authorities and specialists recommend closely monitoring the evolution of the phenomenon.
