In her first message as president of Peru at the end of July, Keiko Fujimori put two “immediate emergencies” among her priorities: insecurity and the El Niño climate phenomenon.
And scientists predict that the current El Niño may become one of the most intense in recent decades.
"The climate does not wait for the times of bureaucracy. Therefore, we will implement a national contingency plan against the El Niño phenomenon that will break with the logic of delayed reaction to move to the era of timely prevention," said Fujimori at his inauguration.
The governments of other Latin American countries, such as Colombia, Mexico and Ecuador, have already announced some measures to respond to possible climate emergencies resulting from El Niño.
According to the latest report from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “there is an 81% probability that a very strong El Niño will occur during the period from October to December” of this year.
And there are indications that it would be “among the most important El Niño events in the historical record” that scientists have kept since the 1950s.
Due to its potential, some experts have dubbed it a “Super El Niño.”
“The impacts will continue to be felt in 2027. The worst impacts will even be next year,” explains Dr. Ángel Adames, professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (USA), to BBC Mundo.
“We will talk from now on about the heat risks and the changes in rain patterns that are already being noticed,” he adds.
A climate “perfect storm”
Although El Niño and La Niña phenomena occur every few years with effects such as severe storms or prolonged heat waves and drought, the combination of climatic factors this year strengthened the phenomenon to a degree rarely seen.
A normal episode of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs when the sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific is 1.5 °C above the historical average. It can last between 9 and 12 months.
But for it to be considered “strong” or “very strong,” several climatic factors must enter the equation, explains Adames, including the behavior of the trade winds that blow from east to west in the Pacific.
"When the winds weaken, the upwelling of cold water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador weakens. And in the absence of cold water, it is replaced with warmer water. And this year there was a very strong weakening and the warming of the water was quite sudden," explains the professor.
And, in fact, this year there were alterations in several meteorological phenomena - such as the ocean-atmosphere feedback, the Kelvin wave or changes in the thermocline - that contribute to the prediction of a stronger than usual El Niño.
Anomalies like these “have to happen all at once” for El Niño to be very strong and that is what happened in recent months, says the expert, who also points to global warming as part of what has caused its strengthening.
All of this makes what scientists call “canonical effects” of El Niño, such as droughts, intense heat waves and torrential rains, more marked.
North and Central America
Mexico is likely to experience a winter with stronger winter storms in the north later in the year, but more heat and drought in the southeast in the coming months, as well as stronger hurricanes in the South Pacific.
Central America will also experience more heat and drought in the so-called “dry corridor” of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. But Costa Rica and Panama will also experience more intense waves of this type than they usually have in other years.
In the Caribbean there also tends to be more droughts during El Niño, which means high temperatures for the population and lack of water for agriculture and livestock.
"Heat waves tend to be the deadliest weather phenomenon. Although it's not talked about much, more people die from heat than from any other weather event," warns Adames.
Mixed conditions in South America
The most mixed conditions occur in South America.
The “epicenter” of El Niño in Peru and Ecuador generates the “coastal El Niño” effect: torrential rains that generate major floods and landslides in the Pacific area, in addition to fishing - a key regional industry - being greatly reduced by changes in ocean temperature.
Parts of Peru may also experience, along with Bolivia, a severe drought, which will put agriculture in check.
The region of Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil may also experience a severe drought, which in addition to impacting the agricultural industry, will significantly reduce the flow of rivers and limit the generation of hydroelectric energy.
On the contrary, in southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, northern Argentina and Chile, more intense rains will be recorded, which usually favor agriculture, but if they occur in excess (as occurred in the 1997 El Niño), there could be devastation due to flooding.
Although the US Climate Prediction Center clarifies that the most extreme effects do not always occur during El Niño, when the phenomenon occurs more strongly its “canonical effects” are more predictable.
Hurricane season
Another notable change is recorded in the hurricane season.
In the Atlantic, El Niño tends to weaken the formation of cyclones, so in a way it is a “relief” for the Caribbean regions, eastern Mexico and the United States.
Quite the opposite occurs on the Pacific coasts of Central America and Mexico. This year could see more and more powerful hurricanes. This is what happened in the 1997 El Niño event, with hurricanes like Pauline, which devastated a coastal strip in southern Mexico.
Adames adds that there are additional factors that this year and next could aggravate the situation in agriculture, such as the war in the Middle East that affects the price and availability of fertilizers.
"This will impact crops, added to heat waves and droughts. If governments do not pay attention, there will be greater impacts on food production and electricity generation," he warns.
What measures are being taken?
Several Latin American governments have already announced measures to try to deal with the effects of El Niño that scientists predict.
President Fujimori in Peru said that she would immediately begin “the massive clearing of rivers, the construction of riverside defenses with modern technical criteria and the protection of basins.”
“We will allocate heavy machinery to critical points and implement a rapid response logistics system to ensure the supply of food, water and medicine in the most vulnerable areas,” he said upon assuming the presidency at the end of July.
In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro - who is about to leave office - declared an emergency and ordered a budget package of around US$1.2 billion for the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management. The objective is to improve the infrastructure of various departments, mainly the coastal ones, to prevent future emergencies.
But the Council of State, the country's highest judicial body, suspended part of Petro's decree, including the financing. It is still unclear what President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, who takes office on August 7, will do.
In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that very intense rains are being forecast due to El Niño, so in early July she ordered that alerts be available to send to the cell phones of residents of specific locations that are at risk.
Sheinbaum said that the Civil Protection office will install “command posts in all states, first those with a coast, particularly in the Pacific, and then it will go to the center of the country” to constantly monitor the situation.
Preventive work also includes cleaning river beds and dams, and placing barriers, among others. In Mexico, the peak of the phenomenon is expected to arrive in December, according to government forecasts.
The governments of Bolivia and Ecuador also said that they are exploring plans and forming teams to address emergency situations that may arise in the coming months.
Adames believes that some governments are not paying due attention to an emergency that is already underway.
"We need better education about what El Niño is and what its impacts are. Although people are tired of hearing about climate change, it is more important than ever to talk about it," he says.
The inhabitants of the countries in the region should also be informed about the risks of natural disasters that may occur in the places where they live, as well as have some preventive plans.
"You have to know that difficult impacts are coming. Have some type of food rationing. I don't want to be pessimistic, because you really never know. But it is good for citizens to prepare for heat waves and droughts," says Adames.
“We must have a preparedness mentality, because we are living in very difficult times.”
