If you're one of those who follows the eternal tennis match between Apple and Samsung, get ready because the scoreboard has just taken a spectacular turn. According to a report fresh off the press from the analysis firm Counterpoint Research, Apple is about to claim the title everyone covets: that of the world's largest smartphone manufacturer. And yes, the culprit has a name: iPhone 17. For years we've watched Samsung cling to that top spot thanks to its immense range of models, from the Galaxy A to the S Ultra. However, it seems Tim Cook's strategy with the new iPhone 17 family has hit the mark, and how! The Cupertino giant is not only growing, but it's leaving its South Korean rival behind in a year where the mobile market is more competitive than ever. The iPhone 17: The architect of the "overtaking" of Samsung. Let's look at the numbers, which is where the real story lies. What Counterpoint Research tells us is quite compelling: Apple is projected to close 2025 with a 10% year-over-year growth in phone sales. To give you some context, this is enormous when compared to the 4.6% growth expected for Samsung or the modest 3.3% growth of the global smartphone market. What does this mean in terms of market share? Well, Apple would capture a 19.4% market share, enough to overtake Samsung and reclaim the throne. The figures from the first few months after launch are staggering: during the first month of iPhone 17 availability, Apple's sales skyrocketed by 22%, while the rest of the market fell by almost 3%. In October, things got even more serious with a 37% year-over-year increase for Apple. This tells us one thing very clearly: people aren't just buying the iPhone 17, they're doing so with an urgency we haven't seen in a long time. Despite rumors that the “iPhone Air” model received a slightly lukewarm reception, the entire 17-inch lineup is pulling its weight with brutal force.

Why Now? The Upgrade Cycle and the Pandemic Effect

You're probably wondering, "Why this year and not last year?" The answer isn't just that the iPhone 17 is beautiful or powerful; it has to do with how we buy technology.Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang has hit the nail on the head with an explanation that makes perfect sense: we're at a turning point in the replacement cycle.

Basically, all those users who bought phones like crazy during the Covid-19 boom are now ready to upgrade their devices. A couple of years have passed, batteries are starting to fail, and people want something new. Furthermore, there's a fascinating statistic: between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were sold. And what do these users do when they want to upgrade?

Exactly, many of them are jumping to a new model, fueling Apple's sales machine.

It's the perfect storm: solid, convincing hardware, coupled with a massive user base that needed to upgrade their devices right now.

The future belongs to Apple: Foldables and dominance until 2029

If you're a Samsung fan, you might think this is temporary, a one-year "stumble." But the Counterpoint report is a bucket of cold water on that hope. Analysts predict that Apple will maintain this global leadership at least until 2029.

And watch out, because what's coming could further cement this position. The report mentions two cards up its sleeve that could be decisive: the long-awaited foldable iPhone and a mysterious iPhone 17e model. If Apple manages to enter the foldable market with the same success it had with the iPhone 17, the gap with its competitors could become unsurmountable. Tim Cook already warned in the latest earnings call that this holiday quarter will be the biggest in the company's history, and the data seems to bear him out. While Samsung tries to readjust its strategy, Apple seems to have found the formula to convince both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were sold. And what do these users do when they want to upgrade? Exactly, many of them jump to a new model, fueling Apple's sales machine. It's the perfect storm: solid, convincing hardware, coupled with a massive user base that needed to upgrade their devices right now. The future belongs to Apple: Foldables and dominance until 2029. If you're a Samsung fan, you might think this is temporary, a one-year "stumble." But the Counterpoint report is a bucket of cold water on that hope. Analysts predict that Apple will maintain this global leadership at least until 2029. And watch out, because what's coming could further cement this position. The report mentions two cards up its sleeve that could be decisive: the long-awaited foldable iPhone and a mysterious iPhone 17e model. If Apple manages to enter the foldable market with the same success it has had with the iPhone 17, the gap with its competitors could become unsurmountable.Tim Cook already warned in the latest earnings call that this holiday quarter will be the biggest in the company's history, and the data seems to bear him out. While Samsung tries to readjust its strategy, Apple seems to have found the formula to convince both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were sold. And what do these users do when they want to upgrade? Exactly, many of them jump to a new model, fueling Apple's sales machine. It's the perfect storm: solid, convincing hardware, coupled with a massive user base that needed to upgrade their devices right now. The future belongs to Apple: Foldables and dominance until 2029. If you're a Samsung fan, you might think this is temporary, a one-year "stumble." But the Counterpoint report is a bucket of cold water on that hope. Analysts predict that Apple will maintain this global leadership at least until 2029. And watch out, because what's coming could further cement this position. The report mentions two cards up its sleeve that could be decisive: the long-awaited foldable iPhone and a mysterious iPhone 17e model. If Apple manages to enter the foldable market with the same success it has had with the iPhone 17, the gap with its competitors could become unsurmountable. Tim Cook already warned in the latest earnings call that this holiday quarter will be the biggest in the company's history, and the data seems to bear him out. While Samsung tries to readjust its strategy, Apple seems to have found the formula to convince both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market.the long-awaited foldable iPhone and a mysterious iPhone 17e model. If Apple manages to enter the foldable market with the same success it has had with the iPhone 17, the gap with its competitors could become unsurmountable. Tim Cook already warned in the latest earnings call that this holiday quarter will be the biggest in the company's history, and the data seems to bear him out. While Samsung tries to readjust its strategy, Apple seems to have found the formula to convince both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market.the long-awaited foldable iPhone and a mysterious iPhone 17e model. If Apple manages to enter the foldable market with the same success it has had with the iPhone 17, the gap with its competitors could become unsurmountable. Tim Cook already warned in the latest earnings call that this holiday quarter will be the biggest in the company's history, and the data seems to bear him out. While Samsung tries to readjust its strategy, Apple seems to have found the formula to convince both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market. Apple seems to have found the formula to win over both its loyal users and those coming from the secondhand market.