There are just a few weeks until Apple takes the stage in September with its new generation of iPhone, but behind the scenes things don't look as calm as usual. The company is dealing with a headache that comes directly from the supply chain, and that headache has a first and last name, a global shortage of DRAM. This type of memory, which is responsible for your iPhone managing several apps at the same time without getting stuck, has suddenly become a scarce and very expensive commodity, and everything indicates that the iPhone 18 Pro could pay the consequences just when it most needs to go smoothly.
Why RAM became so hard to get
The origin of this mess has nothing to do with Apple directly, but with the global fever for artificial intelligence. Data centers that train AI models are gobbling up industrial quantities of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and that has pushed giants like Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron to prioritize those giant orders over those placed by smartphone makers. The result is a brutal mismatch between supply and demand that, according to firms such as IDC and Counterpoint Research, may not normalize until 2027 or even 2028.
Apple tried to find a way around the issue by approaching CXMT, a Chinese memory manufacturer that could have offered a break in costs, but negotiations fell apart due to disagreements on price. That leaves the company almost completely tied to its usual suppliers, just at the worst possible time to negotiate cheaply. Analysts like Tim Culpan assure that TSMC already has more than $1 billion in A20 Pro processors stored ready to be assembled, but without the RAM necessary to complete them.
The direct hit to the iPhone 18 Pro and its arrival in September
Here is the detail that worries Apple. The chip is ready, the production line is running, but without enough DRAM assembly slows down. This bottleneck could translate into limited units on launch day, something that Apple has not experienced for years at a September event. According to reports collected by media such as Vietnam.vn and NotebookCheck, both the iPhone 18 Pro and the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and even the rumored foldable iPhone, could face reduced availability as soon as pre-sales open.
Tim Cook himself already announced in the last earnings call that Apple spent more on memory this quarter than in the previous one, and that the pressure will continue to grow towards the September quarter. To put it into numbers, TechInsights estimates that Apple was paying about $39 for the 12GB of DRAM in the iPhone 17 Pro, and now that same amount of memory could cost you up to $145 in the iPhone 18 Pro. That jump is not just anything, it represents an increase of close to 25% in the total manufacturing cost of the device.
What this means for your pocket if you want the new iPhone
The big question that everyone is asking is whether Apple is going to transfer that extra cost to the final price. Some leaks say that the iPhone 18 Pro could be closer to $1,399 in its most expensive version, while other sources point to a more moderate increase of about $270 compared to the previous model. However, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo takes a different position and believes that Apple could absorb part of the blow thanks to the long-term contracts it has signed with its suppliers, thus avoiding a drastic rise in consumer prices, at least for now.
What does seem pretty clear is that if you decide to wait in line to get the new iPhone in September, you better get there early or reserve as soon as orders open. The combination of component shortages and demand that continues to break records is the perfect recipe for the new model to sell out in a matter of hours in major markets. It will be necessary to see if Apple manages to juggle with its suppliers in the coming weeks, because the clock towards September is already ticking and the memory still does not appear in the quantities that the company needs.
