The conflict, which has been escalating since the start of Trump's new term, erupted this week when the president took to his social network Truth to issue a direct warning: Elon may receive more subsidies than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to shut down and return to South Africa.

In addition to the criticism, Trump went further by proposing an official review of the tax benefits received by the magnate's companies: Maybe we should ask Dogecoin to take a deep look at this. It would save a lot of money!!! he wrote, in a phrase full of sarcasm that did not go unnoticed by either the markets or Musk himself.

The The threat comes at a particularly delicate time for Tesla. This week, the company is preparing to reveal its quarterly sales figures, which are already anticipated to be negative.

During the first quarter, the brand reported a 13% decline in units delivered, and for the second quarter, analysts expect a drop close to 15%.

JP Morgan, one of the most influential investment banks, projects a drop in deliveries to 360,000 units, while Deutsche Bank has an even more pessimistic forecast: 355,000 vehicles sold between April and June.

Both agree that Tesla is facing a structural slowdown in key regions such as Europe and China, where pressure from competitors like BYD and Xiaomi continues to grow.

When Trump speaks, everything trembles

Amid this bleak outlook, Trump's comments acted as a catalyst for investor unease. In his message, the president also recalled that “Elon Musk knew, long before he so vehemently supported me as president, that I was strongly opposed to an electric vehicle mandate. Electric cars are great, but not everyone should be forced to have one.”

The White House's stance could have concrete effects on tax policy. Tesla currently benefits from a $7,500 federal credit for each unit sold, an incentive that could disappear if the tax reform bill currently being discussed in the Senate is passed. Musk was quick to respond, calling the proposal “incredibly destructive” and warning of its impact not only on Tesla, but on the entire clean energy industry. “Elon is upset that the new plan reduces incentives for electric vehicles and other forms of alternative energy. This would directly affect companies like Tesla, which have capitalized on these supports for more than a decade,” explained a source close to the Department of Energy. This possible cut in subsidies adds to a perfect storm for the company. The regulatory pressure and falling sales are compounded by the reputational damage of Musk, who in May decided to leave his role as honorary advisor to the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) after being accused of influencing the economy. improperly in strategic decisions.

“Elon has been a central figure in the promotion of electric vehicles in the US, but his political involvement has generated a noise that is now taking its toll,” explained an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

What could come amid this conflict

Despite the threats, no formal investigation has yet been announced against Musk or his companies. However, media pressure is already in place.

Experts agree that, beyond the stock market crash, the real risk for Tesla would be an official shift in its subsidy policy, something that could considerably reduce its competitive advantage over traditional manufacturers.

According to JP Morgan, Tesla would close 2025 with just 1.575 billion units sold, below the 1.7 million expected. The bank warns that “we see significant risk to the annual delivery outlook as consensus calls for a dramatic shift, despite likely significant near-term reductions in EV subsidies.”

Year to date, Tesla shares have fallen 16%, reflecting a challenging environment that combines a commercial slowdown, aggressive competition, and a hostile political environment.