Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative, is on track to restore a majority to her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the lower house of Parliament, following early legislative elections on Sunday (February 8, 2026), according to initial estimates from Japanese media.

The ruling LDP is projected to win between 274 and 328 seats, up from 198 previously, in the 465-seat assembly, according to projections by public broadcaster NHK based on exit polls at polling stations. The LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterruptedly for decades, would thus obtain more than the 233 seats needed (out of a total of 465) to regain a majority in the House of Representatives.

Responsible Fiscal Policy

“We have consistently emphasized the importance of a responsible and proactive fiscal policy,” Takaichi declared on television after the first polls were released, stating that he wants to “build a strong and resilient economy,” after his initial announcements had spooked markets and sent Japanese government bond yields soaring.

Other Japanese media outlets also project Takaichi as the winner.

The Kyodo news agency stated that the prime minister's party would win "at least" 233 seats, and 261 together with Ishin. Jiji, for his part, indicated that the ruling coalition could win 300 seats in the lower house of Parliament. Previous polls also predicted a landslide victory for the ruling party in the elections.

Possible majority sufficient to reform the Constitution

The biggest loser in the election appears to be the new Centrist Reform Alliance, a union of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Buddhist Komeito party (a former coalition partner of the LDP, but which left the alliance after Takaichi's election as leader). Between them, they would only obtain between 37 and 91 seats, far fewer than the 172 they held before the snap election. "The results seem very harsh, but we have to accept them," Yoshihiko Noda told the press.one of the leaders of the new party and a leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party (PDC).

It remains to be seen whether the ruling coalition will manage to surpass the 310 seats (two-thirds of the chamber) that would allow it to pass bills rejected by the Upper House, where the LDP and Ishin are in the minority, an essential condition for reforming the Constitution.