For Venezuela, oil is not simply an export commodity. It constitutes the central axis of its economy and the main source of income and foreign currency with which the country imports food, medicine, and other essential goods. Therefore, the “total and complete” blockade against sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela—announced Tuesday by US President Donald Trump—could not only affect the government of Nicolas Maduro, but also broad sectors of the Venezuelan population. Several experts warn that a measure of this scope could also backfire on Washington. Trump announced the decision through his social media accounts, where he accused the Maduro government of using “stolen” oil to finance itself and to sustain “narco-terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnapping.” His statements come a week after Washington seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, an action that Caracas denounced as “theft.” “outrageous” and “an act of piracy.”

The US president also stated this Tuesday on Truth Social that Venezuela is “completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America,” adding that this military presence “would continue to grow” and would be “something like nothing ever seen before.”

Venezuela—which possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves—has condemned the blockade order as a “grotesque threat,” which, according to the Maduro government, seeks to “steal” the country’s wealth.

Since September, the United States has amassed a significant military presence off the Venezuelan coast in the Caribbean, including more than 15,000 troops and the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford.

The US military has also been conducting a series of airstrikes against vessels in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, resulting in the deaths of at least 95 people.

President Trump claims the objective of this military campaign is to combat drug trafficking in the region and accuses Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro of leading the so-called Cartel of the Suns.

However, several analysts maintain that the strategy could also be aimed at promoting regime change in Venezuela.

More than 30 sanctioned vessels operate in Venezuela

Venezuela currently produces about 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, representing approximately 1% of global production.

This figure contrasts sharply with the more than 3 million barrels per day the country produced in 1998, the year before Maduro's political and ideological mentor, former President Hugo Chavez, came to power.

The collapse in production is due to a combination of mismanagement, lack of investment in the sector, loss of skilled personnel, corruption, and sanctions.

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Therefore, the impact of an oil blockade on the global market would be limited, at least in the short term.

But, for millions of Venezuelans, the consequences could be much deeper and more direct.

When President Donald Trump imposed a package of strict economic sanctions on Venezuela in 2018, during his first term, the measure deepened the already severe economic and humanitarian crisis that the South American country was experiencing.

According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that year alone the Venezuelan economy contracted by around 15%, one of the steepest declines in its recent history.

Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at the London-based think tank Chatham House, says that the blockade announced by Trump could have an “even more devastating effect if he maintains and persists in it.”

“I think the Trump administration hopes to be able to quickly reverse this measure. It hopes that “The hyperbolic and inflammatory language he used in Truth Social will turn Maduro’s inner circle against him and promote a rapid transition,” he tells BBC Mundo. “But if that doesn’t happen, a major crisis is expected, because a large percentage of Venezuelan exports travel on these types of sanctioned vessels,” he adds. “And the revenue from those exports is not only used to pay and bribe bureaucrats, but also to buy medicine and food, so a major shortage of both is expected.” A recent report by the organization Transparency Venezuela revealed that 41% of the oil tankers (40) that operated off the Venezuelan coast in November were sanctioned vessels, part of the so-called ghost ship fleet. For its part,The independent tracking service Tanker Trackers estimates that some 37 vessels included on the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions list were operating in Venezuelan waters earlier this month. Venezuelan economist Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute in Houston, notes that the measure announced by Trump will also force Nicolas Maduro's government to offer larger discounts on the oil it sells through informal channels to circumvent the sanctions. “In any scenario, this will lead to a reduction in revenue, which in turn will cause a devaluation of the bolivar and an increase in inflation. And if the situation continues, it is likely to generate a significant drop in GDP,” he adds. The IMF projected that inflation in Venezuela will close 2025 at approximately 269.9%, according to its World Economic Outlook report published on October 14. 2025.

Negative Consequences for Trump

Experts warn that the blockade could also have negative consequences for both the Venezuelan opposition and the Donald Trump administration itself.

“If the measure fails to remove Nicolas Maduro’s government and ordinary Venezuelans begin to suffer its effects, many may end up blaming the opposition and Trump for the crisis,” Sabatini points out.

And increased poverty in Venezuela will likely also fuel a new wave of migration to Latin American countries and the United States.

According to UN data, nearly 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since the start of the economic and political crisis, making it one of the world’s largest migration crises.

US economist Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), believes that the blockade announced by Trump could end up hurting him. Politically, if it continues over time.

“Nearly 90% of Venezuela’s foreign currency comes from oil exports, so a blockade like the one announced could generate more poverty and more migration,” Weisbrot tells BBC Mundo.

“It’s a considerable risk for Trump: if Venezuelan migration to the United States increases significantly, his voters are likely to make him pay the price in next year’s midterm elections.”