Given the statements from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this week regarding the data for the month of October, which would not be published, many economists and analysts asserted that this could foreshadow a third interest rate cut interest from the Federal Reserve (FED) in December.

However, this same week the BLS published the labor market data for September, collected before the government shutdown, which indicate that the sector showed solid growth, which could lead the Fed to postpone its plan to reduce interest rates.

One of the key indicators for monetary policymakers is the labor market; many of the decisions made regarding borrowing costs depend on its stability.

According to an analysis by the financial data firm FactSet, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates next month fell from 97% to 22%. Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar, mentioned that "given that the September data wasn't as bad as feared, along with the Fed's recent aggressive statements, it looks like the Fed will skip a rate cut in December." The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for December 9 and 10. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, has previously commented that the goal is to maintain a balance between high inflation and labor market data. Caldwell also commented that "as the negative trend in labor markets continues, we expect the Fed to resume cuts at its next meeting in January 2026, if not in December," he said. The prolonged 43-day government shutdown caused many reports to be postponed; however, the BLS assured that the next report will be published on December 16, with figures corresponding only to the month of November.