This Thursday, July 30, 2026, the United States Department of Commerce reported that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% during the second quarter of this year, one of the weakest figures expected by economists amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East that has caused energy prices to rise and has slowed growth in recent months.
Although the US economy has proven resilient, economists expected a 2.1% increase for the second quarter as there was in the first three months of the year; However, the impact that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had on the oil market threatens a stalemate if tensions between the United States and Iran continue.
Although consumers continue to spend at a considerable rate, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, high prices, especially for gasoline, have put a brake on the budget of the average American household, with the impact being felt mostly by low-income families.
In this regard, Thomas Ryan, senior economist at Capital Economics, commented that “it is still unclear whether consumers will be able to absorb another hit now that retail gasoline prices have risen back above $4 a gallon,” he said in a note to investors.
In this sense, a report by Oxford Economics points out that, with gasoline prices rising again, “the squeeze on real incomes will put new pressure on consumer spending in the second half of the year.”
For its part, the Federal Reserve's favorite indicator was also published this Thursday; According to the Commerce Department report, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in July compared to June 2025, but lower than the 4.1% in May.
As for core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy costs, food and energy rose 3.3% year-over-year from 3.4% in May. “The June report on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index did not show the same cooling that was reflected in the CPI report earlier this month,” noted Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro.
“As tensions continue to push oil prices higher, consumers could face increased pressure at the pump as markets grapple with a more complex inflationary outlook,” Kenwell added.
