Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 by predicting the capture of Nicolas Maduro
After the information became known, many claim that the Polymarket user had privileged information about the arrest
Recently, it was revealed that a user of the decentralized prediction market platform, Polymarket, earned $436,000 after predicting the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, 2026, which raised questions about his bet, and whether he had any information about the military operation.
This has generated controversy about the bet and the integrity of this type of application, since it is presumed that the bettor had privileged information.
Although Trump had announced in early December that Maduro's days were "numbered," no one knew the details of the military operation or the exact day the arrest would take place. Regarding this, Dennis Kelleher, co-founder and CEO of Better Markets, an independent advocacy group focused on financial reform, commented that "this clearly suggests that the bettor did have access to insider information. This particular bet has all the hallmarks of an insider trade. It occurred very late, just before the event they were betting on; it involved a relatively large sum of money; and it took place in a poorly regulated and opaque market," he said. The bets, which can still be seen on the Polymarket platform, also detail that the user had 13 bets, placed between December 27 and January 3, related to the United States and Venezuela. According to Stephen Piepgrass, a regulatory lawyer at Troutman Pepper Locke and a specialist in futures trading,“It was a new account that was betting solely on issues related to the possible removal of the Venezuelan president; there are many telltale signs that make it appear to be insider trading,” he told CBS. These types of apps, where users bet on any topic in the world, are becoming increasingly common; however, many of these prediction markets are unregulated. “These types of betting markets are practically unregulated. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is supposed to regulate, but it doesn’t have the money, the staff, or the expertise to do so. It’s not just thin-handed regulation, it’s regulation without intervention,” commented Dennis Kelleher.