The Supreme Federal Court of Brazil on Thursday convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro by a majority of three of the five justices for participating in an attempted coup d'etat.

The ruling approved by the vote of three of the five judges means that the 70-year-old former president could receive a sentence of more than 40 years in prison.

The sentence was made possible thanks to Judge Carmen Lucia, whose favorable vote was added to that of Judges Alexandre de Moraes and Flavio Dino. A fourth judge, Luiz Fux, acquitted Bolsonaro and proposed annulling the case, citing the Supreme Court's alleged lack of jurisdiction to try him.

The decision against Bolsonaro will not be complete until the fifth judge, Cristiano Zanin, votes, whose vote could no longer change the decision.

However, if his vote is an acquittal, it could pave the way for the case to be re-evaluated by the Supreme Court's 11-judge plenary session, since for that to happen two of the five judges must have voted for acquittal.

In any case, this is a historic ruling, as never before has a former Brazilian president been convicted of coup plotting.

The case against Bolsonaro is linked to the assault on Brazilian institutions that took place on January 8, 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters forcibly seized the National Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Planalto Palace. a desperate attempt to make the newly inaugurated government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva unviable.

Bolsonaro was not in Brazil that day, having left for the United States on December 30 to avoid being present during Lula's inauguration on January 1.

Bolsonaro has denied having any connection to this sort of civil uprising. However, the justices of the Supreme Federal Court saw the event as part of a broader plan to overthrow Lula.

In fact, during the process, the right-wing former president was accused of leading a conspiracy to discredit the electoral system,attack institutions and ignore the results of the elections.

The ultimate goal of these actions can perhaps be summarized in some of the crimes for which Bolsonaro was tried: attempted coup d'etat and violent abolition of the democratic rule of law.

From Lula's freedom to criticism of the elections

According to the Brazilian Attorney General's Office, the coup plot began to take shape in 2021, after Lula regained his freedom and, with it, his ability to run for office thanks to the Supreme Court's overturning of a corruption conviction against him due to procedural flaws.

From that moment on, Bolsonaro began to systematically criticize Brazil's electoral system and question, without offering evidence, the reliability of the voting machines.

Later, during their investigations, law enforcement authorities found evidence that some of Bolsonaro's associates considered ways to raise doubts about the voting system.

Despite efforts to discredit the elections, the voting took place normally in October 2022 and Lula managed to prevail in the second round, obtaining 51% of the votes compared to 49% obtained by Bolsonaro.

Then, the still incumbent president locked himself in the presidential residence, where he remained for 40 days without speaking in public.

When he finally spoke, it was through a brief statement in which he authorized the beginning of the transition, but without making any acknowledgment of his electoral defeat.

Between the plot and Trump's sanctions

During the weeks in which Bolsonaro was imprisoned, his followers began to set up camps in front of the barracks calling for a "military intervention."

Judicial investigations link several of the former president's collaborators to these protests. One of them, Mario Fernandes, admitted to the Supreme Court that he drafted a plan to assassinate Lula and his vice president-elect Geraldo Alckmin, as well as Alexandre de Moraes, one of the justices of that court.

Although Fernandes denied that he would present that document to anyone, the prosecution determined that he printed it in November 2022 before meeting with Bolsonaro at the presidential palace.

According to the investigation, Bolsonaro also studied the draft of a decree ordering the arrest of the Supreme Court justices and allowing for new elections.

In early December 2022, Bolsonaro met with the country's military commanders to present a draft decree declaring a state of siege, but, according to the Federal Police,The lack of support from military commanders on the ground and in the air caused the alleged coup plot to collapse.

During the investigations, Bolsonaro admitted to having discussed the “possibilities” he had after the elections with Armed Forces officers, but said that all of them were within the Constitution.

The effect of these efforts became visible last July, when Trump announced that he would impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian products due to what he called a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.

The US government also sanctioned Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court justice leading the case against Bolsonaro, through the Global Magnitsky Act, created to punish foreigners accused of serious human rights violations or corruption.

This week, when asked about a possible conviction for Bolsonaro, a White House spokeswoman said that Trump “is not afraid to use the economic power and military might of the US to protect freedom of expression around the world.”