Mass shootings are decreasing but gun deaths persist
Scholars on the subject assure that there is no relationship between mass shootings and mental illness
While the number of mass shootings has decreased to its lowest levels in two decades, the United States continues to register the highest number of gun-related deaths compared to other developed countries. During the videoconference "Can the United States Make Progress in Combating Mass Shootings and Gun Violence?", organized by American Community Media (ACoM), experts on the subject discussed the factors underlying mass shootings. Sarah Lerner, a teacher and co-founder of Teachers Unify to End Gun Violence, experienced the February 14, 2018, shooting at Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, when a gunman opened fire, killing 17 people, injuring 17 others, and traumatizing the entire community.
“I was in my classroom with my students. That day we had a scheduled fire drill, and at 2:20, about 20 minutes before classes ended, the fire alarm went off. We all shrugged and looked at each other strangely. I grabbed my phone and keys and went outside. I heard what sounded like firecrackers, which were actually gunshots, the echo of which bounced off the buildings.”
She remembers not knowing where to go, but seeing everyone running, her instinct told her she should go back to her classroom.
“We were locked in the classroom for at least three hours before the SWAT team let us out, and it was the most horrific experience I have ever lived through. My children were almost nine and twelve years old.”
She said her son, who was twelve, was at the high school next door that was also on lockdown, and she had to text him to ask if he was okay because there was an active shooter on campus.
Lerner, who is also a journalist, helped compile material for the anthology Parkland Speaks, which Random House Publishing released in January 2019.
“The book contains artwork, photography, poetry, prose, firsthand accounts, and congressional testimony from 42 survivors, including two pieces I wrote.”
A few years later, she connected with Sandy Hook survivor Abby Clements,and Sari Beth Rosenberg, a teacher in New York City, founded the organization Teachers Unify Against Gun Violence in December 2021.
“We work to be a resource for communities that have suffered gun violence and to amplify the voices of educators, because it’s not just about school shootings, but also domestic violence, antisemitism, racism against Asians, and every other kind.”
Who are the shooters?
Dr. Ragy Girgis, director of the Center for Prevention and Evaluation (COPE) at Columbia University, said that the conclusion of his study on mass shootings and mental illness, which included 2,300 cases worldwide since 1900, is that the vast majority are not related to mental health problems.
“They could be delusional, hallucinating, and hearing a voice telling them to take the lives of others, and even that their own lives are in danger, but this is very rare, and when it does happen, it accounts for 5% of mass shootings in the United States.”
He emphasized that 95% of mass shootings are not related to mental illness. “And what we discovered is that the prevalence of mental illness, and we’re referring specifically to psychotic disorders like schizophrenia, is much higher among people who commit mass murder using other methods than among those who use firearms.” He said this means there is no specific relationship between mental illness and the use of firearms to commit mass murder. “More than 50% of mass shooting perpetrators take their own lives during the event. And it turns out that the primary reason people choose firearms is because it’s the method they use to end their lives.” He said there are three factors involved in committing a mass shooting or any other large-scale event. “The first is one’s conscience or moral system, belief in God and the religious system, or whatever a person’s moral values ??may be.” “Second, there are the values ??that are internalized through family, loved ones, friends, and society. And third, there is the fear of being discovered and imprisoned.” “Antidepressants definitely do not cause mass shootings or suicides, and in fact, they probably prevent them, but we don’t have enough information about that.” “What causes mass shootings from a psychological, motivational, and mental health perspective?” he asked. “Serial killers almost never commit their crimes because of mental illness. In fact, 87% of serial killers are psychopaths. They kill because they enjoy killing.”
However,Psychopathy as a motivation for mass shootings occurs in 2% of cases.
“If we focus on mass shootings in public places, we find that these mass shooting perpetrators have a great fascination with firearms.”
But he also said that they suffer from a deep emptiness, the feeling that they basically have no life, and in its most severe form, it can lead to suicide.
He pointed out that serial killers are generally narcissistic individuals, not in the sense of believing themselves to be very important and arrogant, but rather due to low self-esteem that they project onto others.
Dr. Girgis emphasized that mass shootings are very strongly related to gun policy.
“Laxer state laws are strongly associated with both the number of mass shootings and the number of victims per capita.”
He clarified that the vast majority of guns used in mass shootings are legally acquired; therefore, ultimately, we need to strengthen gun control policies and enforce gun laws.
Low Gun Violence
Dr. Daniel Webster, Bloomberg Professor of American Health at Johns Hopkins University, said that if he only read, saw, or heard the news headlines, he would think that gun violence in the United States is not only incredibly high, but also continuing to rise.
“For decades, the United States has had a homicide rate that far exceeds, eight times higher than, that of other high-income countries.”
He pointed out that nearly 80% of these homicides are committed with a firearm.
“After gun violence spiked in 2020 and then leveled off at a slightly higher rate in 2021 and 2022, homicides in the United States have experienced a strong downward trend.”
He stated that homicides in the United States have decreased by approximately 40% since their peak in 2021 and 2022.
Of course, he said there are some variations in this decline between cities and states, but virtually all of the United States has seen much lower homicide rates in recent years.
“If we consider the 12-month moving average, homicides in Detroit have decreased by 76% since the peak reached in 2021 and 2022. Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New Orleans are, like Detroit, cities that have historically had very high homicide rates.”
He indicated that in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New Orleans, homicides have decreased by 60% during this period, especially among young adults in their twenties.
“I want to make it very clear that there is a wealth of research demonstrating that immigrants have significantly lower rates of violent crime than U.S.-born citizens, and very few of the individuals recently arrested and detained during these federal operations have a history of serious violence.”
He noted that the increase from 2019 to 2020 was the largest annual increase in gun homicides in the nation's history.
“It coincided with the start of COVID-19 lockdowns and, in many cities, also with large protests against police violence.”
I conclude by saying that in the field of public health, they consider gun violence a kind of social contagion, and when it starts, one shooting leads to another and another.
“It’s important to recognize that it also works in reverse. Every effective policy, program, or intervention that prevents a shooting today actually also prevents future shootings. So, at this moment, we are on this downward trend.”

