There were no surprises. Chile elected far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast as its next president on Sunday. The conservative leader won with 58.16% of the vote, a wide margin over the left-wing candidate, communist Jeannette Jara, who garnered 41.84%. On his third attempt, the candidate backed by the entire right-wing spectrum secured the presidency of the South American country, proposing an “emergency government” and delivering a hardline message on security and migration, issues that have become top priorities for Chileans. The victory of the former congressman represents the biggest shift to the right in the Chilean presidency since the return to democracy and comes after four years of Gabriel Boric's left-wing government. Kast won in every region and became the president-elect with the most votes in the country's history, reaching a total of just over 7.2 million votes. This last fact is explained—in part—by the expansion of the electoral register and by this being the first presidential election with mandatory voting.

Its resounding result, however, has multiple explanations and also poses significant challenges.

1. Insecurity and Irregular Migration

“Fear.”

That's the answer given by sociologist Eugenio Tironi when asked about the main factors that explain Jose Antonio Kast's victory in Chile.

The consultant also refers precisely to the fear that was registered among Chileans during this presidential campaign regarding public safety.

“The factors are multiple, but I believe that basically, it's fear. Fear of crime, fear of uncontrolled migration—which is generally seen as associated with crime—and finally, fear of the insecurity produced by economic stagnation. There is a desire for change, a change in political personnel, in style, in the way of governing.” “And Kast capitalized on this very well,” the analyst told BBC Mundo.

The feeling of insecurity has increased in the South American country in recent years, among other things,after an increase in levels of violence in common crimes such as robbery and the detection of the presence of international criminal groups.

This was an issue that, in fact, strongly marked the government of President Gabriel Boric, who was forced to reorganize his priorities and strengthen his agenda on the matter.

The new president-elect of Chile knew how to capitalize well on this citizen concern. With a “tough on crime” discourse against organized crime and delinquency, he managed to embody a response that resonated with voters.

In Chile, organized crime has also been linked to irregular migration due to the entry of groups like the Tren de Aragua.

There are approximately 300,000 migrants who have entered the country irregularly, and Kast He has made them one of his priorities. He has called on them to leave Chilean territory and has committed to their expulsion.

Analyst and communications expert Paula Walker agrees that Kast capitalized on Chileans' fears regarding these issues, but adds a nuance. "It's a campaign that plays on fear, but when it comes to developing its materials, it doesn't appeal to fear. "He doesn't develop it anchored in dark images; On the contrary, his campaign was even hopeful in that sense,” he maintains.

The Chilean journalist and writer Ascanio Cavallo also suggests that Kast managed to embody a promise of change in broader issues that affect the daily lives of Chilean families, such as unemployment, health, and education.

One of Kast's main challenges in this regard will be managing the expectations he has set in these areas.

In his first address to the nation, in fact, he aimed precisely to moderate them.

“The results won't be seen the next day; this requires perseverance, strength, and wisdom,” he said, while emphasizing, “Don't ask us for miracles, ask us for energy.”

2. Moderation and a New Extreme

One factor that marked Jose Antonio Kast's third attempt to achieve the presidency was his apparent moderation.

In 2021, when he lost the runoff election to Gabriel Boric, his narrative was entirely different: he opposed LGBTQ+ rights, abortion in three specific cases, and even proposed persecuting radical left-wing agitators. At that time, he also openly expressed his admiration for the dictator Augusto Pinochet. But he defended none of that time. His strategy was pragmatic and focused on a single issue: An emergency government dedicated to restoring order, with a “tough” approach against delinquents and criminals, and also against undocumented immigrants. When attempts were made to address the issue of values, the response was always the same: these issues are not. a priority for Chileans. On other complex matters, he would simply reply “it depends,"to avoid taking positions that could cost him his political standing. His apparent moderation was further reinforced by the emergence of a figure who stood up to the right: the libertarian congressman Johannes Kaiser, who garnered broad support in the first round and endorsed his candidacy for the runoff. This time, it was Kaiser who played the most extreme role. He proposed, for example, pardoning those convicted of human rights violations committed during the military regime. In his second-round campaign, Kast deepened his appeal to the more liberal right and even the political center. He also made overtures to the world that voted for the populist Franco Parisi, who came in third in the first round of the presidential election on November 16, obtaining 20% ????of the vote. During that period, in fact, Kast received the support of former president Eduardo Frei, a long-time member of the Christian Democratic Party, a center-right party. factor that significantly influenced the historic vote he obtained this Sunday.

“It was very important. It allowed him to attract the center vote, it allowed him to attract the right-wing vote from the old Concertacion (the center-left coalition that led the democratic transition), it allowed him to attract Parisi's vote. All of that would have been much more difficult for him if he had insisted on his values-based agenda,” says Tironi.

The big question that arises in Chile is whether Kast will continue to deepen that stance or, now that he is elected, will he begin to be more proposed about the positions he avoided during the election period.

With an anti-immigrant discourse that echoes Donald Trump, a promise to cut public spending and reduce the size of the state, in the style of Javier Milei, and his closeness to Other figures with authoritarian leanings, such as Nayib Bukele and Victor Orban, have led some in the opposition to wonder whether Kast will follow in their footsteps. His initial signals, at least, pointed in the opposite direction. In his first address to the nation, Kast affirmed that his emergency government “does not mean authoritarianism in any way.” Furthermore, he confirmed his resignation from the Republican Party, repeatedly stated his desire to be the president of all Chileans, and made overtures to Jeannette Jara and her future opposition: “A government is not built solely with its supporters; it is also built with the opposition,” he said.

3. Continuity and Communist Opponent

In Chile, the last time a president handed over the presidential sash to someone of the same political persuasion was in 2006, when then-candidate Michelle Bachelet became Ricardo Lagos' successor.

Since then, with a social uprising and two failed constitutional processes in between,the country has opted for alternation.

This trend is not unique to Chile, but is increasingly common worldwide, as seen in recent regional elections such as those in Uruguay and Bolivia.

The so-called challenge vote, which rejects the incumbent at the time of the election, was a factor that worked against Jeannette Jara.

The left-wing candidate represented the continuity of President Gabriel Boric's government.

She was his Minister of Labor and, despite her best efforts to raise harsh criticisms of his administration, she could not distance herself from him. But not everything can be explained by a dissenting vote. For several experts, Kast's victory also reflects a punishment of Boric himself and his administration.