4 keys that explain Kast's resounding triumph in Chile (and what they say about the challenges he faces)
Several factors combined to ensure Jose Antonio Kast was elected by an overwhelming majority. He won in every region of the country
There were no surprises. Chile elected far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast as its next president on Sunday. The conservative leader won with 58.16% of the vote, a wide margin over the left-wing candidate, communist Jeannette Jara, who garnered 41.84%. On his third attempt, the candidate backed by the entire right-wing spectrum secured the presidency of the South American country, proposing an “emergency government” and delivering a hardline message on security and migration, issues that have become top priorities for Chileans. The victory of the former congressman represents the biggest shift to the right in the Chilean presidency since the return to democracy and comes after four years of Gabriel Boric's left-wing government. Kast won in every region and became the president-elect with the most votes in the country's history, reaching a total of just over 7.2 million votes. This last fact is explained—in part—by the expansion of the electoral register and by this being the first presidential election with mandatory voting.
Its resounding result, however, has multiple explanations and also poses significant challenges.
1. Insecurity and Irregular Migration
That's the answer given by sociologist Eugenio Tironi when asked about the main factors that explain Jose Antonio Kast's victory in Chile.
The consultant also refers precisely to the fear that was registered among Chileans during this presidential campaign regarding public safety.
“The factors are multiple, but I believe that basically, it's fear. Fear of crime, fear of uncontrolled migration—which is generally seen as associated with crime—and finally, fear of the insecurity produced by economic stagnation. There is a desire for change, a change in political personnel, in style, in the way of governing.” “And Kast capitalized on this very well,” the analyst told BBC Mundo.
The feeling of insecurity has increased in the South American country in recent years, among other things,after an increase in levels of violence in common crimes such as robbery and the detection of the presence of international criminal groups.
This was an issue that, in fact, strongly marked the government of President Gabriel Boric, who was forced to reorganize his priorities and strengthen his agenda on the matter.
The new president-elect of Chile knew how to capitalize well on this citizen concern. With a “tough on crime” discourse against organized crime and delinquency, he managed to embody a response that resonated with voters.
In Chile, organized crime has also been linked to irregular migration due to the entry of groups like the Tren de Aragua.
There are approximately 300,000 migrants who have entered the country irregularly, and Kast He has made them one of his priorities. He has called on them to leave Chilean territory and has committed to their expulsion.
Analyst and communications expert Paula Walker agrees that Kast capitalized on Chileans' fears regarding these issues, but adds a nuance. "It's a campaign that plays on fear, but when it comes to developing its materials, it doesn't appeal to fear. "He doesn't develop it anchored in dark images; On the contrary, his campaign was even hopeful in that sense,” he maintains.
The Chilean journalist and writer Ascanio Cavallo also suggests that Kast managed to embody a promise of change in broader issues that affect the daily lives of Chilean families, such as unemployment, health, and education.
One of Kast's main challenges in this regard will be managing the expectations he has set in these areas.
In his first address to the nation, in fact, he aimed precisely to moderate them.
“The results won't be seen the next day; this requires perseverance, strength, and wisdom,” he said, while emphasizing, “Don't ask us for miracles, ask us for energy.”
2. Moderation and a New Extreme
One factor that marked Jose Antonio Kast's third attempt to achieve the presidency was his apparent moderation.
In 2021, when he lost the runoff election to Gabriel Boric, his narrative was entirely different: he opposed LGBTQ+ rights, abortion in three specific cases, and even proposed persecuting radical left-wing agitators. At that time, he also openly expressed his admiration for the dictator Augusto Pinochet. But he defended none of that time. His strategy was pragmatic and focused on a single issue: An emergency government dedicated to restoring order, with a “tough” approach against delinquents and criminals, and also against undocumented immigrants. When attempts were made to address the issue of values, the response was always the same: these issues are not. a priority for Chileans. On other complex matters, he would simply reply “it depends,"to avoid taking positions that could cost him his political standing. His apparent moderation was further reinforced by the emergence of a figure who stood up to the right: the libertarian congressman Johannes Kaiser, who garnered broad support in the first round and endorsed his candidacy for the runoff. This time, it was Kaiser who played the most extreme role. He proposed, for example, pardoning those convicted of human rights violations committed during the military regime. In his second-round campaign, Kast deepened his appeal to the more liberal right and even the political center. He also made overtures to the world that voted for the populist Franco Parisi, who came in third in the first round of the presidential election on November 16, obtaining 20% ????of the vote. During that period, in fact, Kast received the support of former president Eduardo Frei, a long-time member of the Christian Democratic Party, a center-right party. factor that significantly influenced the historic vote he obtained this Sunday.
“It was very important. It allowed him to attract the center vote, it allowed him to attract the right-wing vote from the old Concertacion (the center-left coalition that led the democratic transition), it allowed him to attract Parisi's vote. All of that would have been much more difficult for him if he had insisted on his values-based agenda,” says Tironi.
The big question that arises in Chile is whether Kast will continue to deepen that stance or, now that he is elected, will he begin to be more proposed about the positions he avoided during the election period.
With an anti-immigrant discourse that echoes Donald Trump, a promise to cut public spending and reduce the size of the state, in the style of Javier Milei, and his closeness to Other figures with authoritarian leanings, such as Nayib Bukele and Victor Orban, have led some in the opposition to wonder whether Kast will follow in their footsteps. His initial signals, at least, pointed in the opposite direction. In his first address to the nation, Kast affirmed that his emergency government “does not mean authoritarianism in any way.” Furthermore, he confirmed his resignation from the Republican Party, repeatedly stated his desire to be the president of all Chileans, and made overtures to Jeannette Jara and her future opposition: “A government is not built solely with its supporters; it is also built with the opposition,” he said.
3. Continuity and Communist Opponent
In Chile, the last time a president handed over the presidential sash to someone of the same political persuasion was in 2006, when then-candidate Michelle Bachelet became Ricardo Lagos' successor.
Since then, with a social uprising and two failed constitutional processes in between,the country has opted for alternation.
This trend is not unique to Chile, but is increasingly common worldwide, as seen in recent regional elections such as those in Uruguay and Bolivia.
The so-called challenge vote, which rejects the incumbent at the time of the election, was a factor that worked against Jeannette Jara.
The left-wing candidate represented the continuity of President Gabriel Boric's government.
She was his Minister of Labor and, despite her best efforts to raise harsh criticisms of his administration, she could not distance herself from him. But not everything can be explained by a dissenting vote. For several experts, Kast's victory also reflects a punishment of Boric himself and his administration.
“There were government actions that were very effectively used by Kast's candidacy; management problems, poor political decisions, which he capitalized on very well,” says Walker.
For Cavallo, Jara's defeat is largely explained by having been the face of continuity “of a very bad government, a very amateurish government, very irresponsible in some things. Not in everything, but in some, and with little historical depth.”
Tironi states that it is difficult to know where the line is drawn between a dissenting vote and the responsibility that the Boric administration may bear for handing over the presidential sash to his opposition:
“The government made an effort to respond to some demands that were not present when President Boric was elected. He was elected with demands for social change, with progressive demands, and now he leaves with conservative demands. The Boric government tried to adapt, but it did "A little late, with difficulty, with management problems, and this agenda is obviously not in its DNA. This is an agenda that is much more natural to a right-wing option.
"Being a communist activist is a difficulty, I have no doubt about that. There are many people who genuinely don't feel they can vote for a communist candidate. I mean, there's a two million vote difference," says Walker, although he emphasizes that the former minister largely managed to distance herself from that activism. Cavallo adds: "I'm not talking about Jara's personal qualities or anything like that, but having elected a communist activist is a global contradiction, not just a local one.That lowered her ceiling somewhat and explains why the defeat is so severe.” Tironi, for his part, believes that if you look at the results, that factor was not so decisive. “Perhaps in rural areas, but in urban areas, especially in Santiago and Valparaiso, it was minimal. Because Jara somewhat shattered the glass ceiling of communism.” “He managed to win in many important working-class districts, an electorate that wasn't swayed by the communist stigma,” he says.
“What is certain is that in wealthier districts and in rural areas, it must have had an impact, because Kast managed to get close to 85% in the districts of what we call the upper-class neighborhoods of Santiago,” he adds.
4. Borrowed Vote
Despite the historical nature of his victory, Jose Antonio Kast was not a phenomenon in himself.
In the first round, he obtained only 23% of the votes, less than the 27% he achieved in the same election in 2021.
For his victory this Sunday, the support of other right-wing figures who participated in the first round was important, such as the libertarian Johannes Kaiser—representing a more hardline approach—and the standard-bearer of the traditional right, Evelyn Matthei, who embodies the political vision of the late former president Sebastian Pinera. Pinera.
Both Kaiser and Matthei gave their unequivocal support to Kast. The Pinera family did the same.
And while it's always said that votes don't automatically transfer, the truth is that if you look at the numbers, both Kaiser's votes and most of Matthei's went to the Republican.
Likewise, it can be preliminarily seen that at least some of Parisi's votes also went to Kast.
He made gestures to all of them and their "borrowed votes" on Sunday night.
"Many thanks to those who joined us in the second round, thanks to those who voted for other candidates and today freely chose to support this path of change," he said, while also highlighting that "together we achieved a historic majority."
In the right-wing world, the president-elect has been warned of the risk of becoming intoxicated by the overwhelming majority. of the triumph.
And the situation presents several challenges for his future government. To maintain his support base, he will have to reconcile the opposing visions of the country held by the right wing with those he will have to govern.
Kast will not have majorities in Congress, so he knows he will need to secure the governability of his own party and the votes of Parisi's People's Party and the opposition to pass his policies.
In turn, it will be crucial for him to deliver timely results in what he has defined as his priorities to avoid an early loss of support.
On this subject, Walker emphasizes that "all presidents win with borrowed votes" and that what is relevant is that "today we have the entire country dyed blue, and that is impressive."
"Whether it's just an adherence to his figure or not, I don't know if that's very relevant. What is relevant is that there is a right-wing coalition, led by him, that was able to significantly reduce the left's vote share today and surpass it by two million votes," he adds.
If Kast is capable of making that a lasting asset is what we will see from March 11th, when he assumes the presidency.

