But two key trading partners of Mexico were not among the dozens of nations that the president made public. US: Mexico and Canada.

Although the White House later announced tariffs on some Mexican and Canadian products, such as steel and aluminum, as well as automotive parts not manufactured in the US, both countries seemed to have escaped the worst of it.

This was key for international companies and investors to continue betting on Mexico as a competitive country for exporting to the US, which also has the advantages of its geographic proximity and a well-oiled manufacturing industry.

Since Trump's announcement in April, the numbers reflect that Mexico not only maintained its export rate to the US, but increased it by almost 6%, positioning itself as one of the "unexpected winners" of US tariff policy, as described by The Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago. that meets the requirements of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). "We've seen how transactions under the USMCA have skyrocketed in 2025 because of that exemption," Erica York, an analyst at the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy, told BBC Mundo. Mario Campa, a Mexican expert in economic policy and international finance at Columbia University (USA), agrees that the USMCA has been key to the strong trade figures in North America. "When you, as a buyer in the United States, whether a consumer or a business, start to see tariffs rising everywhere,"You go with the country that obtained the lowest tariff,” Campa points out.

Mexican exports to the US are growing.

Mexican products turned out to be the least affected by Trump's tariffs.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a trade competitiveness ranking developed by the University of Pennsylvania (US), shows that Mexican products pay an effective tariff rate of 4.6% (updated to October 2025).

This rate is explained by a combination of factors, including the benefits of the USMCA and the intense negotiations to achieve more favorable conditions for Mexican products.

Canada, with a tariff rate of 3.9%, is the other country with a wide advantage over the rest of the US trading partners.

Despite this, the volume of Canadian exports to the US was lower than that of Mexican exports last year, with a drop of 6.19% compared to 2024, according to figures from the US Department of Commerce.

Mexico registered an overall growth of 5.66% in its exports to the US Official Mexican figures (through November 2025) also indicate six consecutive months of increases following Trump's announcement in April.

Unlike what happened with these two countries, the University of Pennsylvania's PWBM ranking indicates that the effective tariff rate for Chinese products reached 37.1% last year.

The Asian giant was the largest exporter of products to the US until 2023, the year in which it was surpassed by Mexico. And with Trump's return to the White House in 2025, things worsened for Chinese products destined for the US market.

For the rest of the world, the average effective tariff rate was 10.91% in October, according to the PWBM, compared to 2.2% recorded in January 2025, before Trump began his second term.

Who pays the cost of these higher tariffs?: US importers and, in many cases, US consumers.

Although Mexican exports to the US increased last year, the automotive sector did not fare as well, with an increase of only 0.9% in 2025, much lower than expected.

This is despite the fact that, after intense negotiations, the tariffs ended up affecting exclusively automotive components “not made in the US,” that is, those that are outside the USMCA.

Other important sectors, such as steel and aluminum, were subject to 25% tariffs and registered a drop in exports to the US.

The USMCA's protection

The USMCA was signed in 2017, during Trump's first term.

In the case of Mexico, Only a portion of their exports to the US were conducted under that treaty, as some manufacturers chose to remain outside of it to avoid red tape and bureaucracy. Nearly half of the exporters preferred to pay tariffs, which tended to be low, rather than comply with all the rules of the USMCA. But when Trump announced the tariff increase in April, things changed.Erica York points out that one of the biggest "Freedom Day" exemptions was for products that meet the requirements of the USMCA. This caused many of the exporters who preferred to pay the tariffs to avoid red tape to change their trade strategy. With the new scenario, it became more advantageous for them to export under the terms of the USMCA. In 2024, around 38% of US imports from Canada and 49% of those from Mexico were made under the agreement, York explains. In recent months, those percentages have increased to between 86% and 87% of products, the analyst says. Thus, exporting from Mexico under the USMCA has been key for producers to circumvent the tariffs in the first year of the new Trump administration. Another key, explains Campa, is that in 2025 exporters from other regions of the world continued selling non-perishable goods to the US, such as electronics, which they had already committed to before the new tariffs were applied. But as inventory dwindled, manufacturers already producing in Mexico began to take that market share. "Once those purchasing flows begin to normalize somewhat "With the advance orders and the depletion of inventories, products manufactured in Mexico are beginning to stand out, and it is likely that Mexico is becoming a more important trading partner than China or Canada," Campa explains. "In other words, Mexico is consolidating its position as the top destination for imports from the US perspective," she points out. For York, speaking of Mexico as a "winner" in the context of Trump's tariffs may be a snapshot in time, although this may be confirmed in the future. During the trade war with China in Trump's first term, the specialist recalls, there was “a similar pattern of winners and losers” as trade shifted away from China and toward other countries. This gave impetus to nearshoring, where companies moved their production plants to countries with competitive advantages, such as Mexico, to export to the US without tariffs, benefiting from geographic proximity and a skilled workforce for their businesses. more erratic, but we should expect trade diversion and the resulting winner-loser patterns to emerge under the new tariff regime,” York believes.

“Given Mexico's relative advantage in tariff rate differences, especially with the exemption for products that meet the USMCA requirements, it would make sense to observe this pattern of trade diversion,” he adds.

Time to Renegotiate: The Acid Test

In his disruptive style, on January 13, Trump said that he has considered the USMCA “irrelevant,” generating new expectations about a possible rejection of the continuation of the free trade agreement, whose renegotiation is scheduled for 2026.

“I don't even think about the USMCA. I mean, I want Canada and Mexico to do well. But the problem is,we don't need their products,” Trump said on a tour of a Ford automotive plant in the state of Michigan (northern USA).

“We don't need cars made in Canada. We don't need cars made in Mexico. We want to manufacture them here. And that's what's happening, everyone is moving here from Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, from all over the world,” he added.

From Mexico, Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum reacted the next day, saying she was “convinced that the trade relationship with the United States will continue.”

“Those who defended the treaty the most are American businesspeople, the most; of course, Mexico too. Why? Because there is a very high level of integration. They have many production plants, not only for cars, but for many other things," she added.

"It was assumed that this trade bloc (USMCA) was going to protect itself from China, from Asian imports, that it was going to shield the North American automotive industry. It was assumed that they were going to act more as a coordinated entity,” says Campa. "But Canada's agreement with China somewhat disrupts that narrative. It's definitely not a good sign for the survival of the USMCA, although, I insist, that can change. There are many months to go, there's still negotiation to be done," he adds. For the economist, there are several scenarios that could unfold during this year's USMCA negotiations, ranging from favorable to catastrophic for Mexico. For example, the agreement could be renewed as is, or even with some restrictions favoring US exports. towards the other two countries; or that there is no agreement whatsoever between the countries and the bloc collapses.

“Intermediate scenarios could occur, but we don't know how things will evolve regarding regional content or which sectors will be rewarded or penalized,” he says.

Despite the uncertainty, Canada's negotiations with China are a “bad sign,” he warns.

“It sounds like a kind of hedge or anticipation by Carney,” Campa maintains, in anticipation of the USMCA renegotiation.

Canada would be in a position to negotiate with other key markets since it has more raw materials to trade than Mexico.

If the worst-case scenario were to occur, Mexico would have to continue working on alternative plans to diversify its trade and not depend so much on the US, such as the “Mexico Plan” announced by President Sheinbaum in early 2025, Campa warns.

“Mexico would have to start taking that Plan B or C more seriously "It's something that was discussed at some point, and it doesn't necessarily have to be kept hidden,but rather given a bit more visibility, as Canada is doing," he adds. "It's a bold move, and Mexico isn't Canada, but it's a route that definitely needs to be explored."