The duel between Mexico and England promises to be one of the most attractive of the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. While El Tri arrives undefeated and without conceding goals, England has one of the most talented squads in the tournament. But what do the artificial intelligence models say?

There is no unanimous answer. Depending on the algorithm and the variables analyzed by each model, the predictions lean slightly towards one side or the other.

England starts with a slight advantage

Models that prioritize the quality of the squad, the market value of the players and the historical performance of both teams consider England as the favorite to advance.

Some simulations give them between a 55% and a 60% chance of qualifying for the quarterfinals, supported by the offensive weight of figures like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham and the team's experience in major tournaments.

The betting houses also reflect this slight advantage for the English, although without considering them absolute favorites.

Other models believe that Mexico can surprise

Not all artificial intelligences coincide. Some models consider that Mexico is arriving at a better soccer moment. Javier Aguirre's team has won its four World Cup matches without conceding a single goal, a mark that very few teams had achieved in the history of the tournament.

In addition, playing at the Azteca Stadium, more than 2,200 meters above sea level, appears as an important factor. The altitude, the support of the fans and the greater adaptation time could balance the duel against England. Even the English coach, Thomas Tuchel, recognized that these conditions represent an advantage for the Mexican team.

Some simulations even give El Tri a probability close to 53%-55% of advancing, especially if the game goes to overtime or penalties.

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The keys that AI analyzes

Artificial intelligence models do not try to guess the outcome. What they do is run thousands of simulations using variables like:

Every time a match ends, those odds are recalculated with the most recent information.

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A much more even match than it seems

Beyond the percentages, the analyzes agree on one point: this could be one of the most balanced matches of the round of 16.

Mexico arrives with the best defense of the tournament and the drive to play at home, while England trusts in the hierarchy of its figures and its ability to resolve close games.

The winner will face the winner of the duel between Brazil and Norway in the quarterfinals, so the challenge will not end on Sunday.