More than three months after the United States and Israel began their war against Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed on a framework for a more lasting end to hostilities.

The crisis in the Middle East sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict de facto closed one of the world's main shipping routes for transporting oil, liquefied natural gas and other essential goods, limiting global supply.

However, experts warn that a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time, and that the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for possibly several more months.

How quickly will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

“Let the oil flow!” wrote US President Donald Trump in a social media post in which he celebrated the agreement, which he claimed would include the reopening of the strait to commercial traffic.

“Ships are beginning to move,” Trump declared Monday, “loaded with oil, leaving the Strait of Hormuz,” which, he said, is “totally safe, secure, and risk-free.”

BBC Verify has been reviewing ship tracking data which appears to show traffic levels remain low in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the announcement.

According to ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have left the waterway since Sunday: a bulk carrier and an oil tanker.

The strait has been closed to most maritime traffic since February 28, with only a limited number of pro-Iranian vessels able to pass through it.

Hundreds of vessels have been stranded in the Gulf, and the risk of sea mines or drone attacks has increased the danger for crews and prevented safe passage.

Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics group, said it remains to be seen whether the latest agreement “represents a fragile truce or a lasting arrangement.”

He added that it will likely “take some time for oil flows through the strait to return to pre-war levels.”

“Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production and refining facilities need to return to full capacity, and questions will remain about the cost and availability of insurance for ships passing through the strait,” he said.

Even before the deal, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to try to move their ships out of the strait, and getting those vessels out will be their first priority.

The Danish Maersk is the second largest shipping company in the world and has five ships that have been stranded in the Gulf due to this conflict. The company noted that it is too early to assess how the deal will affect the transportation and logistics sector and that, for now, there are no changes to its operations in the region.

German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the strait and hopes to be able to remove them over the weekend, once the deal is signed and the remaining mines are cleared.

What does that mean for oil prices from now on?

Typically, about a fifth of the world's supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait, and the effective halt to traffic has driven up oil prices. This, in turn, has had a knock-on effect on the costs of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

During the conflict, the price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, peaked at around US$120 per barrel, while before hostilities broke out it was just below US$70.

After learning of the framework agreement, Brent fell to US$83.55 per barrel.

President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will open once the “deal” is signed on Friday. Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, said there is a “strong possibility that we will see a lot of volatility” in the period before the deal is signed.

“There are things that are not confirmed by both parties - important things -: we do not know if the agreement will be signed,” he told the BBC.

"What we have seen so far is an agreement for 60 days to open the strait, but what will happen after that? What if the Iranians want to reintroduce a toll system? A complete peace agreement could still be a long way off," he noted.

Despite this, Schmit stated that normality in the system, including prices, “could return at the end of the year” if a complete ceasefire is agreed. That normality would include a return to pre-war levels of 26 crude oil tankers a day crossing the strait.

With the current positive headlines and selling driven by market sentiment, he said there is a chance the price could fall below US$80 per barrel, but could then average again towards the end of the year around US$80 and a little higher as “the geopolitical factor is removed” and the market assesses the reality of the situation.

What could be the impact on food prices?

Global food prices could also benefit if fertilizer supplies return to near-normal levels. The cost of fertilizers - a petroleum derivative - has skyrocketed, putting pressure on farmers.

Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the ceasefire “should help relieve immediate pressure on fertilizer markets,” although the effects will not be immediate.

He added that approximately a third of marketed fertilizers and large volumes of natural gas - used to make nitrogen fertilizers - transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and that "persistent damage to energy infrastructure" will require time to be repaired.

“In addition, the growing season has already started in several parts of the world, so the resumption of supplies of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers will come too late for agricultural crops, negatively affecting global production,” he said.

Jet fuel – another petroleum derivative – has already seen a slight price decline in the North West European (NWE) market.

The price of NWE has fallen to US$1,033 per ton, compared to US$831 per ton before the conflict and around US$1,840 at its peak.

What other effects could we see from the US-Iran deal?

The war with Iran has affected economies around the world, as rising energy costs have driven up fuel prices, causing inflation to spike. This has put pressure on central banks to raise interest rates in order to keep inflation under control.

In Britain, before the war began, the Bank of England was widely expected to cut interest rates this year. But these forecasts quickly changed as energy costs soared, and the bank is now expected to keep rates on hold, or even raise them later in the year.

“Just last week, markets were anticipating two rate hikes by early 2027. The odds have now shifted to a single rate hike by December and then potentially no change for at least the first half of 2027,” said Russ Mould, chief investment officer at AJ Bell.

“That could mean that companies have more confidence to hire more people, that consumers are more willing to spend money and that the housing market revives after having cooled down for sellers in recent months,” he added.