According to data analyzed and recently published by Steven Ruggles, professor of history and population studies at the University of Minnesota and creator of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), a greater job crisis is on the horizon for the next 10 to 15 years in the United States and it is not necessarily about artificial intelligence.

Although AI has generated great fear among workers, especially in the technology sector, with the large waves of layoffs in recent years, a more in-depth study revealed that new technologies will not be the only problem, since it is expected that between 2030 and 2040 the labor market will have a serious shortage of labor.

The report developed by prominent demographer Steven Ruggles was based on data collected by the US Census Bureau and population growth projections from the Congressional Budget Office, which shows that the workforce is expected to increase by only 9.1 million people between 2020 and 2030, and then decrease by 1.3% between 2030 and 2040, that is, 2.7 million fewer workers in the market.

According to Ruggles, "some people believe that AI is going to eliminate all jobs. "But, relative to the size of the economy, there will be very few people looking for work," he said. For the professor, during this period there will be a high demand for young workers, causing a great shortage of qualified employees; this, coinciding with the retirements of baby boomers, will cause an "unprecedented situation."

However, he believes this could be an advantage for those seeking higher salaries and better working conditions. “This will likely translate into higher wages for young people, stronger unions and lower inequality…Jobs that are unlikely to be mechanized in the coming decades, such as plumbing or electricity, will be in especially high demand and will be very expensive,” he said.

Regarding AI, the expert pointed out that it could be a complement to the economy, in this case helping companies to have greater productivity. "...For the few people who enter the job market, there will be an excellent economic opportunity. "They will do very well," he told CBS.