A new statewide poll has revealed unprecedented pessimism among Latino voters and strong opposition to immigration operations in California ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to determine the new composition of Congress.

“Latinos are increasingly dissatisfied with the direction the country is taking. 62% believe we are on the wrong track. This represents a difference “It's two to one with those who believe we're on the right track; for many years, Latinos have had a much more positive and optimistic outlook as a community, but that's not the case today,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Research, a leading public opinion polling firm based in San Francisco. He specified that the main issue driving the pessimism is inflation. “Eighty-two percent of Latinos are concerned, either extremely or very much, about inflation, something that transcends party lines,” he said. The survey, which included 1,100 people in the final weeks before the November 4 special election, offers an early and detailed look at how Latino voters are evaluating the economy, immigration enforcement, democracy, and the direction of the country. The researcher stated that we are beginning to see those voters who switched from Biden to Trump in 2024 backtracking. California's current economy as fair or poor, and almost half, 47%, rate it as poor.”

And they consider expenses for groceries, healthcare, and housing their biggest concerns; particularly the cost of having a roof over their heads is the biggest cause of economic anxiety among Latinos.

“63% of Latinos believe the economy is unfair to workers, and only 35% believe everyone has the same opportunities to prosper and succeed,” Tulchin said.

An interesting finding is that there is a sense that,Although the cost of living is high in California, the state offers more opportunities.

“61% believe California is too expensive, compared to 36% who said, “Well, it may be expensive, but there are more wages, higher wages, and better opportunities here.”

The survey was conducted amid the Proposition 50 campaign, in which Governor Gavin Newsom took center stage, facing off against Donald Trump.

As a result of that campaign, 42% of Latinos see Gavin Newsom as someone who champions the interests of the Latino community; 18% cite Donald Trump; another 18% credit community organizations, and 17% credit Latino members of Congress.

Immigration

The poll found that Latinos have fairly positive views on immigration.

“49% think positively, compared to 23% who have a neutral or mixed opinion, and 20% who hold negative views about immigration and its impact in California communities,” Tulchin said.

But regardless of how they feel about immigration, the vast majority of Latinos believe they are being racially profiled in current immigration enforcement.

“69% say Latinos are being racially profiled.

“69% say Latinos are being racially profiled.” profiled, and only 23% argue that no racial or ethnic group is being targeted. “Undecided Biden and Trump voters are starting to move closer to the center.” to move away from Trump, since 86% of those voters oppose these raids, which represents almost the same level of opposition among Democrats. Thus, undecided voters are starting to look much more like Democrats than Trump voters and Republicans. base.

“This is a good indicator for Democrats because they cannot regain the House without winning the Latino vote by a considerable margin. Therefore, Proposition 50, scheduled for next year, is encouraging for Democrats,” he noted.

Conclusions

Arturo Carmona, The executive director of Tzunu Strategies, a communications strategist and political consultant, said that one of the clearest conclusions of the poll is that Latino voters are not approaching the upcoming election cycle from a partisan perspective, but rather are evaluating leaders and policies based on fairness, consistency, and whether their actions address the challenges they face in their daily lives. I have noted that this research comes at a crucial time for the country, when there is growing frustration, concern,and pessimism about the economy, the fairness of the system, the country, and the political system. Carmona noted that they closely followed this poll because it also helps explain the dynamics they observed with Proposition 50, what might have happened, and what could happen in the rapidly approaching state and congressional races.