Why Israel decided to attack now the military and nuclear elite of Iran
The attack on several targets in Iranian territory represents an unprecedented escalation by Israel.
Israel's attack against Iran early Friday morning was not only broader and more intense than the two military operations it carried out last year, but it also appears to have adopted part of the strategy used in the offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon in November.
That is, in addition to attacking Iran's missile bases – and, therefore, its ability to respond with force – it launched attacks to eliminate key members of the country's military and nuclear leadership.
This strategy of eliminating senior figures had devastating consequences for Hezbollah and its ability to mount a sustainable counteroffensive.
Images from Tehran show what appear to be specific buildings hit, similar to images of Israel's attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut, which culminated in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The attacks in Iran did not appear to hit anyone of that magnitude. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was not among the targets.
But assassinating Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, and several nuclear scientists in the first hours of the operation amounts to unprecedented damage to the country’s elite.
Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested that this military operation could drag on for days.
This would appear to require a more ferocious response from Iran than we saw for its two attacks on Israel last year.
But it could also make Tehran’s ability to summon a response of this scale much more difficult.
This is the calculation Netanyahu apparently made in ordering this escalation of the conflict.
Why now?
The reason Netanyahu decided to carry out the attacks now could be for reasons he himself has outlined.
In a statement released shortly after the operation began, he said it was about Israel's survival.
But Netanyahu has argued for years that Israel faces an existential threat if Iran obtains a nuclear bomb.
Explaining the renewed urgency, a senior Israeli military official said there was information that Iran had enough material to make several nuclear bombs within days.
However, a very different factor may also have been at play.
Talks between the United States and Iran aimed at reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program were set to enter their sixth round on Sunday. The signs as to how much progress had been made so far were mixed.
For Netanyahu, therefore, it may have meant that this was a crucial moment to ensure that what he sees as an unattainable deal is stopped immediately.
In military terms, he and his advisers may have felt that not only Iran but also its proxies in the region – Hezbollah in particular – have been undermined to such an extent that the threat they posed is no longer one.
The coming hours and days will show whether this is correct or a dangerous miscalculation.
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