Tesla, for years a symbol of technological progress and sustainable mobility, now faces a problem that has nothing to do with chips or batteries: political polarization.

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A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), prepared by economists from Yale University, argues that The company would have sold between 1 and 1.26 million more cars in the United States if Elon Musk hadn't become so deeply involved in the political arena.

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The analysis, which has sparked debate in economic and technological circles, puts numbers to a reality many suspected: the political decisions and comments of Tesla's CEO have had a tangible cost on the brand's reputation and sales.

From visionary entrepreneur to political figure

For more than a decade, Elon Musk was seen as the face of the electric future and innovation. However, that perception changed drastically after he acquired Twitter (renamed X) in October 2022.

What began as a business transaction soon transformed into a political arena where Musk amplified his ideology and sympathies with the Republican Party.

The NBER study analyzed Tesla registrations between October 2022 and April 2025, a period that coincides with the stage in which Musk transitioned from a tech magnate to a political actor with institutional power.

During that time, he held a position at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) within President Donald Trump's administration, a position from which he promoted policies of budget cuts and reductions in federal jobs.

The consequence, according to the researchers, was clear: consumers with Democratic leanings, who for years had been the core of Tesla's clientele, began to drift away.

The political cost: more than a million cars

The NBER report sums it up bluntly:“Without Musk’s partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been between 67% and 83% higher, equivalent to between 1 and 1.26 million additional cars.” The calculation is based on an analysis of sales data in counties across the United States, cross-referencing registration figures with the proportion of Republican and Democratic voters in each area. The results reveal a direct correlation: as Musk intensified his political rhetoric, Tesla sales declined in Democratic-majority counties. Meanwhile, images of hundreds of Tesla cars piled up in distribution yards became a visible symbol of the commercial impact of his political stance. The vacuum that rivals exploited: The displacement of Tesla’s progressive audience not only affected the company but directly benefited its competitors. The same study details that Tesla's decline boosted sales for other electric and hybrid vehicle manufacturers. "As buyers with Democratic leanings moved away from Tesla, it boosted sales of electric and hybrid vehicles from competitors by approximately 17% to 22%," the analysis highlights. Brands like Ford, Rivian, Hyundai, and Kia found an opportunity in this shift in perception, positioning themselves as less politicized and more neutral alternatives. California, the epicenter of the decline: The most visible blow to Tesla has been felt in California, the state that for years was its commercial stronghold and the largest electric car market in the country. There, the drop in the brand's sales has been so pronounced that it has even affected the state's own electrification goals. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) had set a goal of 35% of cars sold by 2026 being electric. According to the study, that figure could have been reached without Tesla's decline.

Between April and June of this year, Tesla deliveries in California fell by 21%, with 41,138 vehicles sold compared to 52,119 in the same period of 2014. And the decline continues: in the recently concluded third quarter, registrations fell another 9.4%.

From national pride to awkward brand

Tesla's decline is not due to lower demand for electric cars, but to a symbolic rejection of its leader. Between January and July of last year, the market share of electric vehicles in California grew by 21%, but Tesla was not part of that surge.

“Tesla was the leader, now people are embarrassed to drive one,” noted an analyst from the MBLM agency last year, reflecting a change in social perception.

For its part,Loren McDonald, director of the consultancy EVAdoption and a former Tesla Model Y owner, was even more emphatic: “There are many Tesla owners who don’t want to give Elon any more money. More and more people are fed up with him.” These kinds of testimonials show that, beyond politics, Musk’s figure has become an emotional factor influencing purchasing decisions. A phenomenon with global repercussions. The NBER study also suggests that the effect is not limited to the United States. The businessman's political exposure and his alignment with the Donald Trump administration have begun to erode Tesla's global image.

Although the company maintains a strong leadership in production and technology, its reputation as a "green" or "progressive" brand has been weakened in markets such as Europe and Canada, where consumers associate the brand with polarizing rhetoric.

This trend could open up space for European and Asian competitors who promote electrification from a more institutional than personalistic approach.