A new analysis by Goldman Sachs economists revealed their outlook for next year, indicating they expect more significant growth than that seen in 2025, although the year ended with less favorable financial conditions such as high inflation, high tariffs, and a clear slowdown in the Labor market.

Economists led by Jan Hatzius commented in their analysis that they anticipate real GDP growth of 2.6%, which they attribute to three key factors. The first is the reduction in the impact of tariffs, which this year clearly affected not only large corporations and retailers but also consumers in general.

The second factor they mention are the reforms promoted by the Executive Branch, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA), which they expect will generate economic growth in 2026. The third and final factor is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will create more favorable financial conditions for consumers.

On the other hand, the analysts did not rule out the possibility that the high unemployment rate, which stood at 4.6% by the end of this year, could be an influential factor in the report. Regarding this, they commented: “We could easily imagine further increases in the unemployment rate in the near term if productivity-enhancing artificial intelligence applications arrive faster than expected or if corporate management teams increase their focus on reducing labor costs in 2026,” they emphasized. Finally, Goldman Sachs economists noted that inflation is expected to decrease next year, having reached 3% by the end of this year, well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and added that its increase is due to tariffs. “The main reason why the PCE's core inflation has remained high at 2.8% in 2025 is the pass-through of tariffs, and that without them, inflation would have fallen to around 2.3%,” they indicated.

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