Spain and Argentina have not yet taken the field, but the World Cup final has already begun to be played in simulators, statistical models and betting markets.

The first projections agree on one point: Spain arrives as favorites. Not because of an overwhelming difference, but because of his consistency, his defensive solidity and the performance he showed during the tournament.

One of the most widespread models, Squawka Signal, assigns the Spanish team a 60.9% probability of being champion, compared to 39.1% for Argentina. The calculation arises from 50,000 simulations and considers the level of the rivals, the chances generated and conceded and the accumulated performance.

The bets also mark a Spanish advantage. After the semifinals, Spain opened as favorites, while Argentina was left behind, although with significant chances of winning the title.

Why Spain appears as a favorite

Luis de la Fuente's team arrives undefeated and with the best defense in the World Cup. In seven games he scored 13 goals and conceded just one.

In the knockout rounds they beat Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France. In addition, they have accumulated 37 matches without defeats between official and friendly matches.

That level of consistency is often highly valued by predictive models, which reward teams that concede few opportunities and maintain stable performance.

Argentina's arguments

Argentina arrives with different numbers, but equally forceful. They won all seven games they played and are the highest scoring team in the tournament, with 19 goals.

Lionel Scaloni's team also demonstrated a reaction capacity that is difficult to measure solely with statistics. In the semifinal against England they lost 1-0 until 85 minutes and ended up winning 2-1 with goals from Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez.

Added to this is the experience of a team that has just won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and remains undefeated in its last 13 World Cup matches.

AI has a favorite, not a champion

There is no single artificial intelligence capable of anticipating the result. Each model uses different data, criteria and weights.

Current projections give Spain an advantage, but also show an open final. A 60% probability does not represent a certainty: it means that Argentina would still win around four out of ten simulations.

Spain arrives with the best defense. Argentina, with the best attack. The numbers have already chosen a favorite. The champion will be known on Sunday in New Jersey.