The balance of power in the global electric vehicle market is going through one of its most decisive moments. What for years seemed like Tesla's unquestionable leadership is now showing clear signs of change, with a Chinese manufacturer advancing at great speed.

BYD, with a strategy focused on volume, electrification, and international expansion, is poised to close 2025 as the world's largest seller of electric cars.

The numbers back up that trend. As the year enters its final stretch, the gap between the two companies is not only widening but also reflecting two very different realities in terms of demand, regulation, and global positioning.

The figures that explain the change in leadership

By the end of November, BYD had sold 2.07 million electric vehicles globally. This volume includes exclusively 100% electric cars, not counting plug-in hybrids, which are also part of its extensive portfolio. The figure is especially significant because it was reached before the end of the penultimate month of the year. Tesla, for its part, reported 1.22 million units sold through September, with a strong surge concentrated in the third quarter. During that period, the company managed to sell nearly 500,000 vehicles, a rebound that was not without its share of circumstantial factors. The effect of the end of the tax incentive in the United States: This temporary boost in Tesla's sales coincides with the expiration of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles in the United States. The incentive, which offered up to $7,500 to buyers, ended in late September following a law promoted by President Donald Trump, the country's current leader. With the elimination of this benefit, the US electric vehicle market entered a phase of adjustment.Analysts agree that demand needs time to find a new equilibrium, especially in a context of high prices and still restrictive interest rates. According to the FactSet analyst consensus, Tesla is expected to register around 449,000 units sold in the fourth quarter, bringing its annual total to approximately 1.65 million vehicles. If this scenario is confirmed, the company would suffer a year-over-year decline of 7.7%, falling clearly short of the volume already achieved by BYD before December. More cautious projections for Tesla: Other estimates are even less optimistic. Deutsche Bank projects that Tesla could close the last quarter with around 405,000 units, reflecting a significant contraction in key markets. According to the entity, sales would fall by around 30% in North America and Europe, and by about 10% in China, an increasingly competitive market. In this context, some analysts have warned of signs of weakness in deliveries. “We believe Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” during the fourth quarter, noted Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. The specialist explained that around 420,000 quarterly sales would be enough to show stability in demand, while investors focus their attention on the autonomous driving plans that Tesla projects for the coming years. BYD accelerates its global expansion. While Tesla faces a more complex environment, BYD continues to strengthen its presence outside of China. Although the company also faces profitability pressures in its domestic market—due to increasingly price-sensitive consumers—its international strategy has become one of its main assets. BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.falling clearly short of the volume already achieved by BYD before December. More cautious projections for Tesla: Other estimates are even less optimistic. Deutsche Bank projects that Tesla could close the last quarter with around 405,000 units, reflecting a significant contraction in key markets. According to the entity, sales would fall by around 30% in North America and Europe, and by about 10% in China, an increasingly competitive market. In this context, some analysts have warned of signs of weakness in deliveries. “We believe Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” during the fourth quarter, noted Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. The specialist explained that around 420,000 quarterly sales would be enough to show stability in demand, while investors focus their attention on the autonomous driving plans that Tesla projects for the coming years. BYD accelerates its global expansion. While Tesla faces a more complex environment, BYD continues to strengthen its presence outside of China. Although the company also faces profitability pressures in its domestic market—due to increasingly price-sensitive consumers—its international strategy has become one of its main assets. BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.falling clearly short of the volume already achieved by BYD before December. More cautious projections for Tesla: Other estimates are even less optimistic. Deutsche Bank projects that Tesla could close the last quarter with around 405,000 units, reflecting a significant contraction in key markets. According to the entity, sales would fall by around 30% in North America and Europe, and by about 10% in China, an increasingly competitive market. In this context, some analysts have warned of signs of weakness in deliveries. “We believe Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” during the fourth quarter, noted Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. The specialist explained that around 420,000 quarterly sales would be enough to show stability in demand, while investors focus their attention on the autonomous driving plans that Tesla projects for the coming years. BYD accelerates its global expansion. While Tesla faces a more complex environment, BYD continues to strengthen its presence outside of China. Although the company also faces profitability pressures in its domestic market—due to increasingly price-sensitive consumers—its international strategy has become one of its main assets. BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.some analysts have warned of signs of weakness in deliveries. “We believe Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” during the fourth quarter, noted Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. The specialist explained that around 420,000 quarterly sales would be enough to show stability in demand, while investors focus their attention on the autonomous driving plans that Tesla projects for the coming years. BYD accelerates its global expansion. While Tesla faces a more complex environment, BYD continues to strengthen its presence outside of China. Although the company also faces profitability pressures in its domestic market—due to increasingly price-sensitive consumers—its international strategy has become one of its main assets. BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.some analysts have warned of signs of weakness in deliveries. “We believe Tesla will see some weakness in deliveries” during the fourth quarter, noted Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. The specialist explained that around 420,000 quarterly sales would be enough to show stability in demand, while investors focus their attention on the autonomous driving plans that Tesla projects for the coming years. BYD accelerates its global expansion. While Tesla faces a more complex environment, BYD continues to strengthen its presence outside of China. Although the company also faces profitability pressures in its domestic market—due to increasingly price-sensitive consumers—its international strategy has become one of its main assets. BYD is “one of the pioneers in establishing overseas production capacity and supply chains for electric vehicles,” Jing Yang, head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.head of corporate ratings for Asia-Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told AFP. She explained that this diversification could allow it to better navigate a global environment marked by trade tensions and tariff barriers. Tariffs, Politics, and New Challenges: The United States maintains 100% tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, a measure adopted by previous administrations that could be tightened under the current Trump administration. Europe has also applied additional tariffs, although BYD is already making progress in building production capacity in Hungary, seeking to reduce its exposure to these barriers. Despite losing its sales leadership, some analysts maintain that Tesla still has room to maneuver. According to Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen,The development of autonomous driving technology will be crucial for the company's future. Elon Musk has announced that production of the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi, will begin in April 2026, in addition to the launch of more affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y to stimulate demand. However, with current figures and projections for the end of the year, global leadership in the electric vehicle market in 2025 seems to clearly favor BYD.