Recent national and regional polls show the percentage of independent voters, including Latinos, reaching a national record and, in some regions, even surpassing a particular party, making these voters a key force in campaigns.

In January, Gallup reported that 45% of American adults nationally identified as politically independent, up from 43% in 2014, 2023 and 2024.

“What you're seeing is a very clear trend where partisan identification is declining and people who identify as no party or who say they are independent are increasing to almost half the U.S. population,” explained Adam Brandon, senior adviser at the Washington, D.C.-based Independent Center. "Yet American politics has yet to catch up. It remains stuck in rigid partisan identification, but there is a discrepancy between voters' actual stance and its own."

Brandon explained that this year, the midterm elections will have a significant growth of independent candidates, without ascribing to a particular party.

"For the first time - and I think this will be the main narrative of the midterm elections - we will see independent candidates. Not independents who run as Republicans or Democrats, but independents who are not aligned with any party, who will run and win at the federal level and for governors," estimated the expert, who was part of the Republican Party.

Adam added that the group he belongs to believes that independent candidates will have a significant chance of victory in the House of Representatives, but also in the Montana Senate and the Michigan governorship.

“And if we look at other states over the long term, particularly Arizona, Colorado and even California, we see that they have a disproportionately larger Hispanic population than the rest of the country,” he noted. “And it is precisely these states where the largest independence movement is observed.”

From Baby Boomers to Generation Z

The national trend marked by Gallup is confirmed with voter registration, since 30.2% are independent, 32% Republican and 37.8% Democratic, according to Independent Voter Project records.

“I think this is the beginning of a massive realignment in American politics, a move away from the extremes and a return to the center,” Adam said.

The expert noted that parties had specific functions in the American political system, mainly organizational and informational, but the change has been driven by demographics and a new “information age.”

“Today, we are witnessing a massive demographic shift in the United States: one economy and country driven by the baby boom generation, and another driven by millennials and Generation Z. Over the next 20 years, in American politics, Generation Z and millennials will make up the majority of the electorate,” the expert specifies.

What Adam explains is not a simple opinion. The data confirms it. The Gallup report indicates that 56% of Generation Z identify as independent, with 27% Democrats and 17% Republicans.

54% of Millennials consider themselves independent, against 24% Democrats and 21% Republicans.

Far from these two groups is generation X, where 42% identify as independent; 25% Democrat and 31% Republican.

"These demographic groups differ from the Baby Boomer generation. Baby Boomers tend to be more partisan and view the world in terms of left and right," Adam added. "Younger generations don't. They see the world with a more nuanced perspective, with more nuances. Young voters tend to believe that both Republicans and Democrats are right on some points, and that by combining both positions, you can achieve legislation that meets all needs."

Among Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964), 33% are independent; while among the so-called Silent Generation (born before 1956) 30% identify as independent. In both cases the figure is more than 20 percentage points compared to Generation Z (born between 1997 and 2007).

And Latino voters?

The trend among voters crosses ethnic and racial groups, including Latinos. While the majority of Latino voters identify as Democrats (53%), independents (22%) outnumber Republicans (18%), which could tilt the November elections, according to a new report from the research firm ThinkNow, published last week.

Adam explains that Latino voters follow the generational trends of the American population in general, so it is possible to see more independents, in addition to establishing that although immigration is a key issue in their lives, their priorities are economic, like the majority of voters.

“Where I live, in Washington, D.C., everyone thinks that the only thing that matters to Hispanics is immigration,” says the expert. "And what do we see in the data? What do Hispanics care about? They care about jobs. They care about safe schools. They care about health care. And these tend to be issues that the parties don't care much about. They're not talking about these issues."

Adam says that the group he represents saw the opportunity to push the agenda of independent voters, he even highlights that there are people who are registered with parties, but “superficially”, because they can change from one moment to the next.