Love moves hearts, but it also moves money, a lot of money. And we're not just talking about flowers and chocolates. This Valentine's Day, thousands of people are betting on the romantic future of celebrities. Predictive market platforms allow you to invest in engagements, weddings, and even potential breakups. This is how this trend that mixes romance, probability, and profit works. On sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, users don't buy traditional stocks; they enter event-based markets. If they believe a celebrity couple will get married before a certain date, they can bet money on it. The odds change in real time based on what people are betting. One of the most talked-about cases involves Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau. On Polymarket, users can bet on whether they will be engaged before the end of 2026. At the beginning of February, the probability was 27%. More than $22,800 had already been wagered on the couple's fate. Another relationship generating millions in speculation is that of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. On Kalshi, the probability of them getting married before January 1, 2027, is around 70%, according to user bets. There are also bets on whether the wedding will happen before June 30th or if there will be a premarital pregnancy. “With Valentine’s Day in the air, who doesn’t want to see two people get together?” Melinda Roth, a professor at Washington and Lee University School of Law and a prediction market researcher, told CBS News. Although she doesn’t bet money, Roth admitted her preference. “I’d rather bet on a contract of love than a contract of breakup,” she said. The phenomenon of event-based betting markets doesn’t stop there. At Kalshi, betting odds indicate a 53% probability of an engagement between Kylie Jenner and Timothee Chalamet this year. At Polymarket, the potential marriage between Zendaya and Tom Holland before December 31st is at 49%. And the chance of Bill Belichick and Jordan Hudson tying the knot before 2027 is only at 27%.

These markets are based on the theory of the “wisdom of the crowd.” The idea is that a large, diverse group can make better predictions than an individual.

Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, described the platform on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” as “the most accurate thing we have as humanity right now, until someone creates some kind of super crystal ball.”

However, it’s not all romanticism. Critics warn that these markets can open the door to insider trading.

“People are using insider information to make a profit at the expense of people on the other side who don’t have that information,” said Ben Schiffrin, director of securities policy at Better Markets, a nonpartisan advocacy group focused on financial reform.

Kalshi prohibits betting by those who possess material nonpublic data. How is that controlled?

It's a mystery.

“Someone who knows that Justin Trudeau bought a ring would have an advantage over other bettors,” Roth exemplified. “They aren't using any skills or creating superior knowledge for themselves. They are taking important, non-public information and capitalizing on it.”

In contrast, a fan who closely follows every Taylor Swift interview could simply connect public clues.

The regulatory debate continues. Both platforms are overseen in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its chairman, Michael Selig, recently stated that he seeks to establish clear rules for these event markets. He wants the market to grow, but with defined standards.

Polymarket, which operates globally, was forced to close in the US in 2022. Its relaunch came under CFTC regulation, as does Kalshi.

There are also concerns about access to gambling. Some experts believe that allowing bets on almost any topic can attract new users to the world of gambling. Even so, economists like Rajiv Seth consider betting on romances to be “relatively harmless,” as long as people understand the risks. A key point is verification. Rumors on social media aren't enough. For a market to pay out, there must be an official announcement. Phrases like “We're engaged” or “I said yes” serve as valid proof. Speculation without confirmation doesn't generate profits. If you're a hopeless romantic or a single person looking to monetize other people's love, these event betting markets can be an alternative. Exciting and risky at the same time.