The automotive world is undergoing a profound transformation and, according to the most recent projections, China is emerging as the undisputed protagonist of this new era.

In its Automotive Outlook 2040 report and Global Automotive Supplier Study 2025, consulting firm Roland Berger warns that the Asian giant's brands could capture a third of the global automotive market in a surprisingly short period of time.

This change not only implies an increase in sales for Chinese manufacturers, but will also modify the global competitive structure.

Potential profits will grow most strongly in Asia, especially in China, which will become the main revenue driver for the sector over the next 15 years. For Western automakers, the message is clear: adapt or lose relevance.

Record exports and international expansion

One of the clearest indicators of this rise is the sustained growth in exports. Brands like Chery have reached historic milestones: at the end of July, the company celebrated having shipped five million vehicles abroad, consolidating its position as China's largest automobile exporter.

But Chery is not alone in this race. BYD and Geely have also accelerated their international presence, taking advantage of a formula that combines competitive prices, advanced technological equipment and a production network capable of supplying distant markets without sacrificing profit margins.

The strategy of these brands is based on an aggressive commercial policy that allows them to gain market share in regions as diverse as Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and even Europe, where traditional manufacturers see their hegemony threatened.

Two possible futures for the industry

Roland Berger's analysis suggests two scenarios for the coming years. The first, and most likely according to its projections, is that Chinese brands will continue their rapid growth and achieve very high market shares not only at home but also in key regions such as Europe and Latin America.

The second scenario is less favorable for China and envisions a recovery by Western automakers.

In this case, long-established manufacturers would be able to stabilize their position thanks to profound innovations, changes in their business models, and greater efficiency to reduce costs. However, this outlook would depend on an accelerated transformation that not everyone is prepared to assume.

Asia's weight in the automotive future

Beyond which scenario materializes, the report agrees on one point: future growth in the vehicle market will be concentrated in Asia and the global south, with China as the absolute leader.

Europe and North America, on the other hand, will face a period of stagnation in sales volume, with few new buyers and a market more focused on replacing units than on the initial acquisition.

This geographic shift in demand represents a challenge for Western brands, which will have to rethink their strategy to compete in regions where they do not have the same infrastructure or the same capacity of production than its Asian rivals.

Amid uncertainty about the future of mobility, Roland Berger points out that electric vehicles (EVs) will be a central axis in the automotive market.

The energy transition is already underway and, according to the most optimistic estimates, EVs could represent up to 55% of sales in Europe and China by 2030.

In North America, progress will be more slow. By the same date, it is projected that electric vehicles will not exceed 30% market share. This difference reflects both public policies and consumer preferences, which are more inclined toward combustion models in the United States and Canada.

The shift toward electrification will bring about a reshuffle throughout the automotive sector's value chain. Traditional suppliers will see their margins reduced, as demand for mechanical parts will decrease, while the market will increasingly shift toward electronic components and software solutions.

China has taken the lead in this area. The country has not only developed highly competitive supply chains but has also achieved a large-scale production capacity that is difficult to match.

This advantage allows it to offer more affordable vehicles without sacrificing technology, something that many European and American manufacturers are still trying to achieve.

Strategies that make a difference

Chinese brands have shown that success does not depend solely on price. Their value proposition integrates advanced features—such as driver assistance systems, full connectivity, and high-efficiency batteries—with an attractive final price for the consumer.

Furthermore, they have been quick to adapt to regulatory changes, such as emissions standards in Europe or tax incentive requirements for EVs in different countries.

This flexibility has allowed them to enter markets where traditional manufacturers take longer to comply with regulations.