“It was a new account that was only betting on the possible departure of the Venezuelan president,” commented Stephen Piepgrass, a lawyer specializing in futures markets. “There are many telltale signs that suggest insider trading.”

Polymarket is a New York-based company. It operates using blockchain technology. It recently received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, a traditional exchange operator. It is currently seeking regulatory approval in the United States. However, the company has not commented on this matter.

In previous interviews, its CEO, Shayne Coplan, defended the presence of insiders. “It’s a good thing that insiders have an advantage in the market,” he said. He added that it is necessary to define clear ethical boundaries.

Supervision of these markets falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, Kelleher believes that oversight is almost nonexistent. “These betting markets are virtually unregulated,” he said. “It’s not light regulation. It’s a total lack of regulation.”

Some experts point out that the bet could violate the Commodity Exchange Act. This prohibits betting related to war, terrorism, or murder. The case could become a legal turning point.

Beyond the legal aspect, the episode leaves a clear warning. Prediction markets are not a fair game for everyone.

“It’s about fundamental fairness,” Piepgrass said. “Do you want to bet in a place where others have key information that you don't?”.

The capture of Maduro has not only raised geopolitical uncertainties about whether it is a kidnapping or a legitimate detention, but it has also impacted the economy and, in this case, the gambling industry, raising questions about potential injustices on betting platforms and speculation that puts the vast majority of users at a disadvantage.

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