For years, investing in Bitcoin was synonymous with taking extreme risks. Impressive rises were followed by equally strong falls, often linked to a phenomenon known as the halving cycle (reduction by half). But that narrative could be changing, according to some industry analysts. For many, Bitcoin is entering a new stage of maturity that could reduce the frequency and severity of its crashes.

The recent flash crash on October 10, which shook the crypto market, served as proof. While numerous cryptocurrencies plummeted by up to 70%, Bitcoin barely fell back 7%, demonstrating a resilience that was previously uncommon. This difference has sparked the interest of investors who are now wondering if the old pattern of extreme rises and falls is behind us.

Among those promoting this idea is Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the BitMEX platform and an influential voice in the cryptocurrency world. In an article published on October 8, he asserted that traditional Bitcoin cycles, marked by sharp declines following halving events, are losing relevance.

According to Hayes, the reason for this change lies in the new dynamics of the global economy, where monetary policy plays a key role. He explains that central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, are showing greater tolerance for inflation, which means more money is circulating. And if the value of the dollar is diluted, investors look for more stable havens like Bitcoin, which has a fixed issuance limit.

Another point that supports this optimistic view is the greater institutional presence in the Bitcoin market. For example, the largest ETF for this cryptocurrency already manages nearly $93 billion in assets. This means that large investment funds, financial advisors, and even retirement accounts are acquiring Bitcoin in a systematic and regulated manner. This constant demand helps stabilize the price and reduces the possibility of drastic drops.

Even so,Experts warn that this doesn't make Bitcoin an invulnerable asset. Volatility is still part of its nature, and unforeseen events can always shake the market. However, the difference is that today there are more tools to contain the impact, and a much broader and more solid investor base.

The famous four-year cycle, based on the reduction of miner rewards, still exists and will continue to have an influence. But it no longer seems to be the sole driver defining price behavior. As Hayes points out, the expansion of liquidity and institutionalization are diluting that boom-and-bust pattern.

For investors, this new era for Bitcoin may offer opportunities. But it is essential to act with caution. The basic recommendations remain in force: do not invest more than necessary, diversify, and consider strategies such as scheduled savings (or "Dollar Cost Averaging"), which consists of purchasing a fixed amount regardless of the current price.

Bitcoin is still a young asset compared to traditional markets. But its more stable performance in recent months could indicate that large declines could become less common.