COVID projections for 2026: Will it remain a threat or just a dire memory?
Experts suggest that a new variant with greater transmissibility or resistance to previous immunity could emerge
It has been almost six years since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Although it is no longer considered a public health emergency, the virus continues to pose risks, especially to vulnerable people. Experts predict that Omicron-type variants will dominate by 2026. The newest variant, called XFG or Stratus, is more elusive and is expected to drive a surge in cases. Symptoms will continue to vary, from mild to severe. As the winter months approach, an increase in COVID-19 cases is expected. Experts suggest that a new variant with greater transmissibility or resistance to previous immunity could emerge. According to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), between October 1, 2024, and September 27, 2025, there would be between 14.1 and 20.7 million cases of COVID-19, between 390,000 and 550,000 hospitalizations, and between 45,000 and 64,000 deaths. As of June 1, 2024, nearly 1.2 million people had died from COVID-19 in the U.S. Importance of Vaccination: Vaccination remains critical to reducing hospitalization and mortality rates. The majority of current cases are occurring in unvaccinated individuals. Specialists urge citizens to get vaccinated, especially those at risk. Regarding the XFG variant, Dr. Thomas Russo, professor and head of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek that “it appears to be more immunoevasive, allowing it to become dominant, since immunity from previous infection or vaccination was imperfect.” This characteristic allows this variant to develop in more and more cases, but it is even predicted that a new variant, more infectious than XFG, will emerge in 2026.
Disease Awareness
Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining vigilance regarding COVID-19. Despite perceptions of decreased risk, the disease remains potentially deadly, particularly for individuals in high-risk groups.
XFG Variant Symptoms
The most common symptoms of the XFG variant of COVID-19, also known as “Frankenstein” or “Stratus,” include fever, dry cough, severe sore throat, and fatigue, similar to other Omicron variants.
Distinctive Symptoms. A characteristic feature is hoarseness, aphonia, or temporary loss of voice, which can serve as an early indicator. Other frequently reported symptoms include “razor-blade throat” (sharp pain when swallowing), dry mouth, and extreme weakness.
Nasal congestion, headache, loss of taste or smell, and in rare cases, hearing loss or skin rashes are mentioned. The WHO indicates a low overall risk, with no evidence of greater severity.
Vulnerable Groups
Specific risk groups should be more alert to the new COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1 or similar subvariants, as well as to the recently circulating H3N2 subclade K influenza.
People over 65 and immunocompromised patients face a higher risk of complications, so immediate vaccination is recommended if it was not done in the fall. People with risk factors such as chronic diseases should also prioritize preventive measures.