The Venezuelan opposition welcomed the Nobel Peace Prize for Maria Corina Machado.

It is expected to renew international attention to her cause.

In response to the recognition, Machado asked for help directly from the man who expected to defeat him.

“Today more than ever we count on President Trump,” Machado declared.

He hopes that with the support of the United States, other Latin American countries, and the “democratic nations of the world,” Venezuela “will achieve freedom and democracy.”

The stakes are high in Venezuela right now.

Imagine a country where millions of people live in poverty. Where basic services, like electricity, are precarious in many areas. And where the healthcare system is in crisis, with severe medicine shortages.

A country from which millions of citizens have fled in recent years, many to the United States or neighboring countries.

Venezuela's last presidential election was widely dismissed internationally as neither free nor fair.

Security forces cracked down on protests after the vote, with many people arrested. Human rights organizations believe hundreds of political prisoners remain.

More recently, the United States began bombing vessels off the country's coast in international waters after alleging they are transporting drugs and being handled by traffickers. Lawyers say the attacks could violate international law.

This is just a snapshot of the current situation in and around Venezuela. In any other world, this would be a great story.

But the Venezuelan opposition, which the United States and others predict won the June 28, 2024, elections, was left with few clear avenues for real change.

Few avenues for the Venezuelan opposition

Machado, the de facto leader of the Venezuelan opposition, is in hiding in Venezuela. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, whom the United States and others recognize as president-elect, lives in exile. Both face threats and have been accused of treason by the government of Nicolas Maduro. Machado briefly appeared at a protest before Maduro's inauguration in January but was arrested and later released. The widespread protests that took place after the June 28 election have decreased in frequency due to fears of repercussions for protesters. Opposition calls for the military and security forces to abandon Maduro have so far not led to significant defections. Like other key militia groups, these forces remain loyal to the president. There is a question about how far opposition allies, including the United States, might be willing to intervene. Trump's real objective

In recent weeks, the United States has bombed at least four vessels in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, killing at least 21 people.

The White House claims these are drug trafficking vessels but has not provided details about the people on board.

Some lawyers believe the attacks violate international law, but a recently leaked memo sent to Congress notes that the United States now defines itself as part of a “non-international armed conflict” against drug trafficking, suggesting it seeks to justify the use of war powers against suspected cartels.

While it is true that groups like the Tren de Aragua have a presence in the region, it is presumed that some of these vessels originate from Venezuela, a country that is by no means the largest hotbed of drug trafficking in Latin America.

Military Deployment

The Pentagon has reportedly deployed a force of thousands of troops to the region and has been planning possible military operations.

Special operations forces have been spotted on neighboring Caribbean islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Grenada’s Foreign Ministry said it is reviewing a U.S. request to temporarily install radar equipment and technical personnel at its airport.

Venezuela’s Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, warned of possible U.S. drone strikes or special forces carrying out “targeted killings.”

The president of neighboring Colombia, Gustavo Petro, said “a new theater of war has opened” in the Caribbean.

In Venezuela, civilian reservists are preparing for a possible U.S. attack.

U.S. government officials argue that Maduro leads Venezuela’s cartel network, a claim he denies, leading to the U.S.’s argument that removing him from power is ultimately a counter-narcotics operation.

In August, the U.S. doubled the reward for information leading to his arrest to $50 million and accused him of being “one of the biggest” drug traffickers of the world,” something the Venezuelan government called “pathetic.”

Venezuela has cooperated with some migrant repatriation flights from the United States, but this has not appeased Trump’s anger at Maduro.

The Oil Offer

This Friday, the American newspaper The New York Times reported that Venezuelan officials offered the Trump administration a majority stake in Venezuela’s oil, gold, and mineral resources, areas that have been heavily sanctioned.

The newspaper specified that the White House rejected the offer.

The Trump administration may have criticized the Nobel Peace Prize committee, accusing it of “playing politics” for not awarding the prize to the American president. But for now, he remains an ally of the Venezuelan opposition and a staunch opponent of Maduro.

CBS News, the BBC's US partner, understands that Trump called Machado to congratulate her, saying she deserves the award.

It is unclear whether the US will limit its operations to small boats in the Caribbean Sea or if it has broader plans to target more senior figures within Maduro's government.

Venezuela may not have many allies globally, but there are notable exceptions, such as China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba.

If the US decides to intervene on Venezuelan territory, the situation could quickly escalate.

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