The economy is once again at the center of the political debate. With less than a year to go until the midterm elections, various studies and surveys show that persistent inflation, rising cost of living and wage stagnation are especially affecting Latino and African American communities, two groups that could play a decisive role in shaping the next Congress.

An analysis by Brookings researchers warns that there is a growing disconnect between the optimistic message of President Donald Trump's administration and the perception that millions of families have about their economic situation.

Although the White House has defended the strength of the U.S. economy, data shows that many households continue to struggle to cover basic expenses such as housing, food, gasoline, health care and child care.

Affordability, a concern of voters

According to data cited by the aforementioned media, 57% of Americans consider that the country is on the wrong path, while 76% describe current economic conditions as fair or bad.

The main concern remains the cost of living. In recent months, rising prices have continued to put pressure on household budgets, especially among low- and middle-income households.

Researchers maintain that Latino and African American communities are particularly vulnerable to these changes because they spend a greater proportion of their income on essential expenses. Additionally, economic sectors with a high participation of Latino workers, such as construction, manufacturing and some services, have faced uncertainty due to changes in economic and trade policies.

In parallel, community organizations have reported an increase in demand for food assistance. Food banks and social support programs are seeing higher levels of utilization, a sign that many families continue to face difficulties making ends meet.

The Latino vote would redefine the political landscape

The economy was one of the factors that helped Trump improve his performance among some Latino voters during the 2024 presidential election. However, that support appears to be showing signs of erosion.

A recent UnidosUS poll found that 65% of Latino voters believe that President Trump and Republicans in Congress are not focused enough on improving the economy. Additionally, nearly four in ten Latinos say their financial situation has worsened over the last year.

According to that poll, if the legislative elections were held today, the Democrats would have a significant advantage among the Latino electorate, although there is still a large segment of undecided voters.

The situation also worries African-American communities. Brookings notes that recent layoffs at federal agencies and slowing wage growth could disproportionately affect African American workers, particularly women employed in the public sector.

A choice marked by the pocket

As the midterm elections approach, both Republicans and Democrats face the challenge of convincing voters that they have a viable plan to alleviate economic pressure.

The researchers conclude that perception of the economy could be as important as macroeconomic indicators. Although the national unemployment rate remains relatively stable and some indicators show growth, millions of Americans continue to feel that their income is not keeping pace with everyday expenses.

For many Latino and African American voters, the question is no longer who has the best economic narrative, but rather who can offer concrete solutions to reduce the cost of living, so the answer, according to research, could define the balance of power in Washington for years to come.