Colombia goes to the polls today to elect president and vice president. The conservative Abelardo de la Espriella has an advantage over the left-wing senator Iván Cepeda after the results of the first round and several polls.

Among the campaign issues, the increase in violence has been among the main concerns.

“My brother was murdered in front of his children for not paying extortion,” said Edilma Martínez Flores at a support center for displaced people in Bogotá.

He fled his home on the outskirts of Cali, in the southwest of the country, after armed groups distributed pamphlets ordering residents to leave or face violence.

"We had no choice but to leave our things. They started placing bombs along the routes that people travel," he said.

Edilma is far from the only one and experiences like hers explain why insecurity dominates the minds of many voters in this Sunday's crucial presidential elections.

Colombia's six decades of conflict between armed groups, the state and cartels have killed hundreds of thousands of people.

It is not new, but armed groups have practically doubled their number of members in the last five years in an expansive trend that began in 2018, during the government of conservative Iván Duque and two years after the peace agreement between the government and the FARC.

Precisely, dissident factions of those Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Gulf Clan have expanded their control over key rural areas for drug trafficking and illegal mining.

A brutal offensive between the ELN and FARC dissidents near the Venezuela-Colombia border last year displaced tens of thousands of people.

The two presidential candidates have markedly different visions for addressing this violence.

During the campaign, a presidential candidate, Miguel Uribe Turbay, was assassinated, and in recent months several regions of the country have suffered security crises with homicides, kidnappings and bomb attacks.

Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda is considered one of the promoters of the “total peace” strategy of current president Gustavo Petro, which prioritizes negotiation with armed groups.

Various analysts believe that this strategy failed, although they do not directly attribute to it all the deteriorations in security that the country has suffered in recent months.

This negotiating strategy is criticized by voters who only believe in a strong hand, while it is defended by voters who think that an outstretched hand preserves more lives.

The route of negotiation was key in the 2016 peace agreement, which disarmed thousands of FARC combatants.

The Tiger

Cepeda's rival is Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing, conservative businessman and lawyer who calls himself “El Tigre.”

He is endorsed by Donald Trump and is a US citizen.

His characteristic attire and that of his followers is the Colombian soccer jersey, which the left has accused him of politicizing.

He has promised 10 mega-prisons, military offensives and the end of negotiations with armed groups, arguing that he has the “courage” to confront them.

“Any criminal who does not surrender will be eliminated,” he promised.

For many Colombians, the way this problem is addressed will have a huge impact on their lives.

Isabelita Mercado Pineda, government advisor for peace, victims and reconciliation in Bogotá, states that forced displacement increased by 300% between 2024 and 2025.

“We have not seen displacements like this in the last two decades,” he added.

She said it was due to factors such as increased cocaine production, the army's failure to occupy territories left by the FARC after their demobilization in 2016, leaving gaps that armed groups could fill, and the "failure" of the government's strategy, which she said provides criminal groups with "a carrot, but not enough of a stick."

The victim support center in Bogotá shows the magnitude of this problem.

Erin Gamboa, from the Chocó region on the Pacific coast, said the FARC guerrilla had taken her stepbrother and they have not heard from him since.

"My region is highly disputed. Criminal gangs fight for territory," he said, describing how paramilitaries, guerrillas and the FARC clash over places where there is illegal mining and cocaine trafficking.

Another couple, speaking anonymously, said their small food delivery business was contacted by a man claiming to be from the FARC. He began to extort money from his children, demanding 5 million pesos (about US$1,500).

Through tears, the woman described how crime has grown “so much” and that “you can no longer leave in peace.”

Trump's endorsement of de la Espriella, criticized by the left as foreign interference, comes as the United States takes a more interventionist stance on crime in Latin America.

Trump's controversial support

Trump claimed that the elections would determine Colombia's relationship with the US, adding that "if Abelardo wins... [Colombia] will have the full support and strength of the US," and calling Cepeda a "radical left-wing Marxist."

De la Espriella grew up in the Caribbean region of Colombia, where he has strong regional support.

María Luisa Sánchez, a family friend and childhood neighbor, said that de la Espriella “has achieved everything he has set out to do in life, he is a man with very strong convictions.”

“He has that character, that courage, he is what we need for Colombia, a person… who is tough on drug trafficking and the guerrillas,” he explained.

Sandra Caballero also supports De la Espriella from a village on the outskirts of Barranquilla and said that “she will work with the US in the fight against drug trafficking and does not plan to talk to criminals, a strategy that in the last four years has not produced results.”

“He wants to change taxes to help companies generate more jobs and invest in safety and health,” he argued.

Cepeda, on the other hand, has the lead among Colombia's youngest voters.

“Cepeda's security proposal not only contemplates the coercive forces of the State to stop crime, but also takes into account the structural roots of insecurity: the lack of state presence, poverty, inequality and the membership of many young people in criminal groups,” said student Catalina La Grande.

"We do not want to repeat the security models of previous governments, which have left thousands of victims and have not resolved the problems. We believe in negotiated security: combining repression (of armed groups) with social programs," he indicated.

In a fanzone for Colombia's opening World Cup match against Uzbekistan, which they won 2-1, a young Sofía Díaz said she was hopeful that her team, and Cepeda, would win.

"I'm nervous about the elections. I like Cepeda's proposals, he is against fracking, he has fought for the country all his life," she said.

The streets of Bogotá resounded with jubilant cheers and vuvuzelas after Colombia's victory: the sound of a country, briefly, very united.

With two very different candidates on the ballot, this Sunday's election will make the situation much more divided.

*With additional information from Vanessa Silva and Nathalie Jimenez.