On June 21, Colombians will return to the polls for a presidential runoff that many observers consider one of the most consequential in the country's recent history.

The contest between Iván Cepeda, candidate of the Historic Pact, considered leftist, and the right-wing Abelardo of the Espriella de Salvación Nacional has sparked an intense debate about the future of Colombian democracy, the implementation of the peace agreements, land rights, migration and the country's role in Latin America.

The elections come at a critical time for a nation that has been grappling with armed conflict, displacement and political polarization for decades. The outcome could have significant repercussions for democratic government, human rights, migration patterns, and regional stability across the hemisphere.

For the presidential elections, approximately 405,000 Colombians in the United States are eligible to exercise their right to vote. This figure makes the United States the country with the highest concentration of voters from the Colombian diaspora. On Sunday, June 21, the second round of the elections will take place to elect the president and vice president of Colombia.

Polarization between left and right

During the videoconference “Beyond the Left and the Right: Why the elections in Colombia are important for democracy in all of America”, organized by American Community Media (ACoM), Beatriz Magaloni, professor of political science and principal researcher at Stanford University, said that the elections take place within a framework of growing polarization in Latin America.

“Many interpret Colombia's recent electoral context as a result of this polarization, with incredibly close races.”

However, he said that although at first glance it seems like a confrontation between left and right, what we are witnessing is not something ideological per se but rather a matter of experience.

"Many Colombian citizens, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, feel that they live in a very dangerous place. They suffer from crime, extortion and insecurity, and they perceive a serious problem: the inability of the State to guarantee their security. They are afraid and look for solutions."

In this sense, he said that a candidate like Abelardo de la Espriella is very attractive, since he promises a tough approach, emulating figures like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to solve a problem that deeply affects their daily lives.

But he said that if we look at rural Colombia, also deeply affected by years of civil war, we find a very different experience in terms of insecurity and state failure.

"In the municipalities, especially in rural ones, there is not only a greater presence of armed groups that control the territory, but also growing competition between them."

He said that these groups no longer fight for ideology, but for profit and for control of valuable territories due to factors such as drug trafficking corridors, mining and natural resources.

“These communities, mostly rural, Afro-descendant, indigenous or simply Colombian peasants abandoned by the State, face the threat posed by the territorial control of these armed groups.”

So he said that we are talking about two very different experiences regarding the State and its failure; I think this is what is fracturing Colombian society.

Key aspects

Manuel Ortiz, sociologist, documentary photographer, journalist and audiovisual consultant at Stanford University's Democratic Action Laboratory, who has been traveling to Colombia for the last 13 years, said that Colombia has lived in violence for many years, and the period between 2002 and 2010, which corresponds to the presidency of Álvaro Uribe, was a time marked by great violence and massive forced displacement in various areas of the territory.

“Many people were forced to abandon their homes and lands to move to other places within Colombia or emigrate to other countries, some even to Venezuela, although they are now returning, and others to the United States.”

He said that there are two key aspects for these elections: the situation of displaced people (especially those with limited resources) and the issue of territorial disposition during the years of Álvaro Uribe's government.

"Many of these people lost their lands and were displaced by large landowners; this is the case of the conflict between the Nasa and the Yanacona peoples, since, in reality, both communities recognize that the main problem is not the other community, which they consider sister."

Ortiz said that both presidential candidates have stated that the economic system they would implement if they became president would be capitalism.

"It is not a question of left or right, but of democracy in the face of democratic regression. It is about peace agreements and the restitution of lands in the face of a return to periods of violence and land grabbing as happened with Álvaro Uribe; while one of the candidates talks about continuing with the recovery of lands within the framework of the peace process and agreement, the other talks about fighting again like in the old days of Álvaro Uribe. Colombia has already experienced that."

Furthermore, he said that these elections revolve around sovereignty against the colonialist impositions of the United States.

"One of the candidates is very aligned with American politics, Abelardo de la Espriella, who proposes a return to those days of violence. Colombia is currently going through a crisis of violence, but on the periphery in the departments and areas where people live in the most violent places, people seem to prefer a continuity of current policies over a return to the Álvaro Uribe era."

Fear of a return to violence

Alex Sierra, anthropologist at the Center for Latin American Sociolegal Studies (CESJUL), said that there is fear for those who have directly suffered violence due to the possible triumph of Abelardo de la Espriella.

"Abelardo seeks to emulate Nayib Bukele with the enormous difficulty of armed control of more than 57 structures with the capacity for war. An eventual government of Abelardo del Espriella would generate a dramatic spiral of new violence and a humanitarian drama, unprecedented for the country."

He said that the regulation of drug markets and the great infiltration of tremendously rich capital from different countries is a phenomenon that must be part of a global negotiation.

“Colombia is basically one of several countries where the same measure has been applied by a series of far-right messianic candidates like Bukele in El Salvador and basically what we understand is that it is a very organized international right, which is clearly going to have an unprecedented impact on human rights, not only in Colombia, but in the entire region.”

He said that they have been identifying that Donald Trump's pattern is to generate direct interference in elections in countries with democracies that are very weak and there is great fear about that authoritarian relationship, which has historically been had with the United States.

“The common citizen has enormous tension regarding the relationship with the United States, and there is clearly fear of a bad relationship with that historical asymmetric and power association.”