This is, so far, the toll left by the torrential rains and sudden floods that hit Texas and cast a pall over the celebrations of July 4, the day of the Independence of the United States.

Rescue operations continue in the area around the Guadalupe River, the epicenter of the tragedy, as there are still more than 40 people missing.

While some families prepare to bury their loved ones and others await news of their missing loved ones, questions have begun to arise about how this event occurred and why it left so many victims.

1. What role did terrain play?

“Texas, overall, leads the nation in flood deaths, and by a wide margin,” said Hatim Sharif, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Texas, in a piece published on The Conversation.

After reviewing data from 1959 to 2019, he found that 1,069 people died in flood-related tragedies in the state during that period, and many of those deaths occurred in the area where the current tragedy took place.

The area, where the Guadalupe River flows, is known as Flash Flood Alley, Sharif wrote.

It’s a crescent-shaped strip of land that runs from near Dallas, through Austin and San Antonio, and then bends west toward the Mexican border.

The alley has conditions that make it ideal for flash flooding.

“The hills are steep, and water moves quickly when it rains. It’s also a semi-arid area, with soils that don’t absorb much water, so water runs off quickly and shallow streams swell quickly,” Sharif explained.

“When those swollen streams converge into a river, they can form massive bodies of water that can sweep away homes, cars, and, unfortunately, anyone in their path,” he added.

Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University (USA), made similar statements, telling The New York Times that the area could experience “devastating flooding in a flash.”

Sharif, for his part, recalled that in 1987 other rains in western Kerr County caused the Guadalupe River to rapidly overflow its banks, causing events similar to those of recent days.

“Ten teenagers who were being evacuated from a camp died in that flood,” he recalled.

Geography also explains why the region is prone to torrential rainfall.

This part of Texas is home to the so-called Balcones Escarpment, a line of cliffs and steep hills created by a geological fault. And when warm air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the escarpment, it condenses and can trigger localized but intense downpours that fill streams and rivers.

As temperatures rise, the warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, increasing the risk of torrential rains and flooding. This explains why this event occurred in the middle of summer.

Between Thursday and Friday, the affected area received an amount of rain equivalent to several months, according to meteorologists.

In 45 minutes, the Guadalupe River rose eight meters, causing it to overflow its banks.

Floods of this river are not unusual. At least one has been recorded in every decade of the 20th century, according to data compiled by the University of Houston (USA).

2. Was the warning given too late?

Another question that has begun to circulate is whether the warning systems worked and gave residents and vacationers enough time to seek shelter.

On Wednesday, the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated the state's emergency response resources due to the increased threat of flooding in parts of west and central Texas.

On Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flood watch, identifying Kerr County as at high risk for flooding overnight.

Early Friday, regional authorities issued separate watches for Kerr County, several hours apart, after finding the Guadalupe River was bursting its banks, the BBC reported.

So what happened? What went wrong? Texas Governor Greg Abbott blamed the magnitude of the disaster.

“No one expected a wall of water almost 30 feet high,” he said.

TDEM Director Nim Kidd, meanwhile, He admitted that not all residents and visitors received the messages warning them of what was coming.

“There are areas where there is no cell phone coverage, so no matter how many alert systems you sign up for, you’re not going to get a message,” he said at a news conference.

However, the official suggested that the NSW reports were inaccurate and that did not help them take action more quickly.

However, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly acknowledged that the municipality, one of the hardest hit by the disaster, lacks flood warning systems.

The official, speaking to CBS, said that six years ago the county considered installing a flood warning system along the Guadalupe River, similar to the sirens that announce tornadoes. So what happened? The system was never implemented due to its cost, he explained.

“We know there are questions being asked about the notification system, and while this is not the time to speculate, we are committed to conducting a thorough review of the current systems,” said Dalton Rice, one of Kerryville’s municipal officials, on Sunday.

“We will announce measures in due course to better prepare for future events. We owe this to those who lost a loved one and to all members of our community,” the official said at a press conference.

3. What influence did Trump’s cuts have?

While the effort to find the 40 people missing after the Guadalupe River flooded continues, the American press has begun to speculate about the impact that budget and staff cuts implemented by the Donald Trump administration have had on the tragedy.

The New York Times revealed that several National Weather Service (NSW) offices in Texas lacked hydrologists or meteorologists, who are essential for their climate monitoring and warning work.

Tom Fahy, director of the NSW Employees Organization, said that vacancies in at least two Texas offices had doubled since January, when Trump returned to the White House.

“Staff reductions endanger lives,” John Sokich, who was NSW’s director of legislative affairs until January, told the newspaper. The former official explained that the lack of personnel made it difficult to coordinate with local authorities in the event of an emergency.

The government, for its part, denied these allegations.

“The timely and accurate forecasts and alerts for Texas this weekend demonstrate that the NWS remains fully capable of carrying out its crucial mission,” the Department of Commerce said. which the meteorological agency depends on.

However, under the Trump administration, NSW, like other federal agencies, has been forced to reduce its staff.

As of last spring, the Meteorological Service had lost nearly 600 of its nearly 4,000 staff due to layoffs and retirements implemented by the Department of Efficiency led by billionaire Elon Musk, The New York Times reported.

4. What is known about the victims?

The torrential rains that have hit central Texas since the end of last week have so far claimed the lives of 81 people. Media attention has focused on Kerr County, where the Mystic Christian Camp was located and devastated by the floods.

At the center, run by the same family since the 1930s and presented as a place for girls to grow spiritually in a healthy Christian environment, at least 27 girls and teenagers died, while another 10 remain missing.

The floods would have surprised the girls and their counselors sleeping in their beds, according to initial investigations and testimonies.

"We all became hysterical and prayed a lot," Stella Thompson, 13, told NBC. She was woken by the sound of the helicopters on Friday morning.

The girl was unharmed because her cabin was on higher ground, but other companions like Renee Smajastrla, 8, were not so lucky.

“Renee was found and while it wasn’t the outcome we hoped for, the social media outreach likely helped emergency responders identify her quickly,” her uncle, Shawn Salta, wrote on Facebook.

“We are thankful she was with her friends and having a wonderful time, as evidenced by this photo from yesterday,” he added.