The administration of President Donald Trump launched an illegal operation in Iran without a plan for governance, which could complicate US actions and unleash instability in the Middle East, international relations and security experts warned.

“This war that Trump launched is unjustified and illegal,” Max Boot, author of best-selling author and foreign policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “I understand that the War Powers Act and the US Constitution require the president to go to Congress for authorization to act. Certainly, that has been the custom for a long time, although, obviously, presidents have used military power without direct congressional authorization, usually in very brief operations.” Boot cited operations in Panama as an example, when a potential threat to the US or its infrastructure is assessed, but in this case, he added, there was no certainty that Iran was “enriching uranium.” “I don't think there was any threat that would justify this massive US military operation, much less without congressional authorization,” he added. "I find it simply shocking how Trump has not only failed to seek authorization from Congress, but hasn't even explained to Congress or the American people why he is acting or trying to convince the American people. Just before the action began, polls showed that around 20% of Americans supported an attack on Iran, and he didn't seem to care, and went ahead anyway."

She added that this means the US military will not succeed, given its military power, "the most powerful military force in the world," she stated at a special meeting with journalists.

Elisa Catalano, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the CFR, questioned the US and Israeli strategy.

“Is the ultimate goal, as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, Is it eliminating Iran's ability to project power beyond its own borders? Is regime change decimating its naval capabilities?” I have asked. “All of these things are possible, but not necessarily at the present time, when real economic costs are being imposed, especially in the Gulf,and I think this is sustainable until those impacts are seen, not just in oil prices, but more broadly, in commercial shipping, insurance, and so on, and in the defensive capabilities at stake.”

The Weakening of Ali Khamenei

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow in Middle East Studies at the CFR, considered that the US and Israeli military escalation hit a weakened Iran since last June.

“Ali Khamenei is no longer as powerful,” he said. “This means that some kind of succession mechanism was already in place, and you can observe how the regime makes decisions quite quickly, without necessarily having his influence intervene.” They have established a three-member committee as a transition committee. It is part of the Constitutional Convention.”

This could complicate any attempt by the US or its allies to impose a government or push a specific leader.

“I think the regime is capable of functioning without Ali Khamenei, because, in my opinion, it has functioned without him, at least since the June war, or without his constant and direct oversight of national affairs,” the expert said. “After the uprising, the regime regained control of the streets with a considerable number of casualties.”

He pointed out that Khamenei ruled for 37 years and, therefore, for 60% of Iranians under 30, he is the only ruler they know.

Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council, agreed with Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and African Studies and a CFR member.

“Steve commented on oil prices. “I would have thought we would see a much bigger rally. I've also noticed that Wall Street is pretty stagnant," Abrams said. Experts agreed on the uncertainty surrounding how long the operation will last, although President Donald Trump indicated it could be between four and five weeks.

The Weakening of Ali Khamenei

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow in Middle East Studies at the CFR, believes that the US and Israeli military escalation has hit a weakened Iran since last June.

“Ali Khamenei is no longer as powerful," he said. "This means that some kind of succession mechanism was already in place, and you can see how the regime makes decisions quite quickly, without necessarily having its influence intervene. They have established a three-member committee as a transition committee. It is part of the Constitutional Convention.”

This could complicate any attempt by the US or its allies to impose a government or push a specific leader.

“I think the regime is capable of functioning without Ali Khamenei, because, in my opinion, it has functioned without him, at least since the June war, or without his constant and direct oversight of domestic affairs,” the expert said. “Following the uprising,the regime regained control of the streets with a considerable number of casualties. I would have thought we would see a much bigger rally. I've also noticed that Wall Street is pretty stagnant,” Abrams said.

The experts agreed on the uncertainty surrounding how long the operation will last, although President Donald Trump indicated it could be between four and five weeks.