According to data published this Thursday by the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, retail sales in the United States increased 0.2%, representing one of the smallest increases in the last five months, after an upward revision of 1.0% in May.

These latest figures are published after learning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.4% in June, placing inflation at 3.5%, and that Producer Prices (PPI) also fell 0.3% last month, the largest decrease since April 2025.

Analysts agree that retail sales were down last month after the drop in oil and gasoline prices, and although they stood at 6.7% year-on-year in June, during the first months of the year family budgets were affected not only by the conflict in the Middle East, but also by the high tariff rate.

According to the Department of Commerce report, the largest increases in retail sales last month corresponded to goods and online commerce. For Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, she believes that "Despite the difficulties, consumers continue to spend and the labor market shows no signs of weakening. This type of data will not influence the Federal Reserve's decision, but it underlines the continued resilience of the US economy."

Regarding the Federal Reserve's decision, the inflation rate is still far from its 2% objectives, which indicates that the war against inflation is far from over. However, for Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, there is good news, as the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates should continue to decline: “Inflation at the industrial level is trending downward and producers will not pass on their higher costs to the consumer as much as we previously thought.”